France's national gambling authority, the ANJ (Autorité nationale des jeux), directed the country's internet service providers to block access to Polymarket last week, citing the platform's failure to obtain a French gambling license and raising concerns about market manipulation. On July 22, Polymarket announced it intends to fight the decision through legal channels.

"We are disappointed by the French gaming authority's (ANJ) sudden decision to unilaterally block our website," the company said in a public statement.

The ISP block is an escalation from earlier enforcement. In November 2024, following a nearly two-year investigation, the ANJ had already moved to restrict financial transactions originating from French territory. That measure proved largely ineffective. According to traffic data the ANJ cited from Similarweb, Polymarket recorded 578,751 visits from French IP addresses in June 2026 alone, with 205,057 unique visitors, suggesting users routed around the restriction through VPNs or other workarounds. The ANJ stated plainly that "the earlier control prevented financial transactions from French territory but led to workarounds in practice," and ordered the broader site block in response.

The ANJ's objections go beyond the licensing gap. The regulator flagged that Polymarket's decentralized structure makes it difficult to verify who is trading, raising questions about the platform's ability to meet standard Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements. A more specific concern involves a subset of weather-based prediction markets: the ANJ alleged that weather sensor data may have been compromised to rig those markets, a claim serious enough to prompt a formal investigation by the cybercrime unit of the Paris Public Prosecutor's Office, launched May 4, 2026.

The regulator said the site will remain blocked "for as long as authorities consider the platform noncompliant."

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What the block actually cuts off

One technical detail matters here. The ISP order targets Polymarket's web interface, not the underlying smart contracts. Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain, with all trades settled in USDC (a US dollar-pegged stablecoin). The underlying smart contracts were not blocked, and the on-chain settlement layer remains resilient. The market infrastructure itself was not disrupted.

Analysts note that this split between a centralized frontend and a decentralized backend suggests real limits on the practical reach of any single jurisdiction's enforcement order, even as it remains precisely the kind of structure that regulators struggle to address.

Advertising Polymarket to French audiences without authorization carries a penalty of up to 100,000 euros (roughly $114,000) under French law.

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A widening pattern across Europe and beyond

France is not acting alone. Portugal and Hungary banned Polymarket in January 2026. Spain temporarily blocked both Polymarket and rival platform Kalshi in May 2026. New Zealand ruled prediction markets illegal in February 2026. Australia had already moved against the platform in August 2025. The ANJ itself counts at least 12 European jurisdictions that have enacted some form of prediction market restriction.

The regulatory pressure is compounding with a new layer. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, known as MiCA, came into full effect in July 2026. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has confirmed that MiCA's market abuse regime and Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) licensing requirements apply to prediction market platforms, meaning operators may face both gambling licensing requirements and MiCA compliance obligations simultaneously. That dual burden complicates any path to legal operation in the EU.

Not every jurisdiction is moving toward restriction. Gibraltar licensed Europe's first regulated prediction market operator, PredictStreet, in March or April 2026. In the UK, the Gambling Commission confirmed prediction markets fall under its oversight rather than the Financial Conduct Authority's remit, but it has allowed licensed operators, including Matchbook Predictions and Betfair Predicts, to run them legally.

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What this means outside Europe

Polymarket remains accessible across South Asia and most of Africa. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka face no current restrictions on the platform. India represents a meaningful share of the user base, with roughly 20 active event markets and more than $5.3 million in recorded trading volume. Nigeria and South Africa are similarly open, with approximately 17 active markets listed for South Africa.

The France situation is relevant to these regions regardless. Regulators in India, Nigeria, and elsewhere are watching how European authorities classify crypto-native prediction platforms: as gambling products subject to gaming law, or as financial instruments regulated under securities or commodities frameworks. The classification question determines which regulatory regime applies and how hard it is to obtain legal authorization. India's Ministry of Electronics and IT (MeitY) is still finalizing the country's online gaming framework, and this case may well serve as a reference point in those deliberations.

For developers building on decentralized platforms in markets with volatile regulatory environments, France's action also signals where enforcement risk actually lives. Blocking an ISP-level domain is far easier than disrupting on-chain settlement. Platforms that rely on a single web frontend without censorship-resistant alternatives, such as IPFS-hosted interfaces, decentralized domain systems, or Ethereum Name Service (ENS) integrations, carry more exposure than their architecture might suggest.

Polymarket's year-to-date trading volume reached $33.5 billion as of mid-2026, with a peak monthly volume of $10.5 billion in March. The platform re-entered the United States market in February 2026 after acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market (DCM), giving it a regulated foothold there even as European access narrows.

The legal challenge in France, if pursued, will test whether a crypto-native platform can successfully contest a national gambling authority's jurisdiction over a decentralized protocol.