The call is the second bullish Wall Street note in under two weeks. Morgan Stanley upgraded HOOD to Overweight on September 1, setting a $150 target and projecting a 23% revenue compound annual growth rate to $8 billion by 2028. Scotiabank added a positive note on September 3. The consecutive bullish calls reflect a shift in how institutional analysts are modeling Robinhood, moving away from its origins as a retail stock trading app and toward a company with blockchain infrastructure and regulated event-contract trading at the center of its growth story.

Palmer projects that Robinhood Chain will generate $980 million in annual revenue by 2029 at an 85% profit margin. The chain launched its mainnet on July 1, 2026, after a public testnet period beginning in February. It is built on Arbitrum, an Ethereum-compatible Layer 2 protocol, and processes blocks in 100 milliseconds. Since launch, the network has recorded 576 million transactions, attracted 12.3 million active addresses, accumulated $2.78 billion in bridged total value locked, and generated $34.6 billion in cumulative DEX volume. On September 3 alone, the chain collected $4.59 million in gas fees. On August 31, its app revenue briefly exceeded that of Ethereum itself, surpassed Solana in daily revenue, and ran at approximately six times the level of Base, Coinbase's competing L2, according to data from Datawallet. Day-one infrastructure partners include Uniswap for liquidity, Chainlink for price oracles, BitGo for custody, and Alchemy for node infrastructure.

Robinhood Chain currently offers more than 190 tokenized stock products, giving users in over 120 countries economic exposure to publicly listed US equities such as Nvidia, Apple, and Google. These tokens can be used as collateral in decentralized lending pools or lent through Robinhood Earn, which offers roughly 7% annual yield on the USDG stablecoin. Robinhood Earn is underwritten by Lloyd's of London, a detail that adds meaningful institutional credibility for users evaluating the yield product. A Pons launchpad handles token and memecoin issuance on the chain; it logged 22,600 new token launches on August 30 and generated $40.8 million in fees in the 30 days ending September 3. One near-term variable worth watching: Robinhood is subsidizing gas fees for eligible wallet users through September 29. How transaction volume holds after that date will be an early signal of whether on-chain activity reflects genuine demand or subsidy-driven behavior.

The prediction markets business has moved quickly from a minor product to Robinhood's second-largest revenue line. The company launched its prediction market hub in March 2025 and generated $156 million in revenue during the second quarter of 2026, a 50% jump from the prior quarter and roughly ten times higher than the same period in 2025. Prediction markets revenue in Q2 surpassed both stock trading ($129 million) and crypto trading ($100 million). More than 13.6 billion event contracts were traded during the quarter by roughly one million active users. Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys noted in his September 1 upgrade that only 7% of Robinhood's customer base has used prediction markets, describing the product as largely untapped across the remaining base. Robinhood's prediction market infrastructure gained regulatory standing in January 2026 when the company completed its acquisition of MIAXdx and formed Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group that holds both a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market and a Designated Clearing Organization designation. The MIAXdx acquisition and Rothera formation also eliminated prior revenue-sharing arrangements with Kalshi, a change that materially improved the economics of the prediction markets business rather than simply its regulatory standing. This week, Robinhood announced prediction market partnerships with Crypto.com and OG ahead of the NFL season.

Robinhood's overall Q2 2026 results provided additional context for the analyst enthusiasm. The company reported $1.31 billion in net revenue for the quarter, up 32% year over year and ahead of analyst estimates in the range of $1.25 billion to $1.28 billion. Earnings per share came in at $0.62, above the consensus estimate of $0.42. Net income rose 48% year over year to $573 million. Funded customer accounts reached 28.4 million, and Robinhood Gold paid subscriptions hit a record 4.8 million, up 39% from a year earlier. Options trading was the single largest revenue segment in Q2 at $342 million, a figure that puts the prediction markets line in proper perspective: meaningful growth, but not yet the dominant segment. Crypto trading revenue came in at $100 million, down 38% year over year, a decline that helps explain why the chain and prediction markets are framed as new growth engines rather than extensions of Robinhood's existing crypto business.

For users outside the United States, the most immediately relevant development is the stock token offering available in 120-plus countries. Users in markets with limited access to US equities can hold tokenized exposure to major US companies through a crypto wallet without needing a Robinhood brokerage account. Readers in South Asia should note a meaningful caveat: Robinhood has not confirmed that India is among the 120-plus eligible countries, and structural regulatory barriers from SEBI and the RBI leave India's status uncertain. The gas subsidy running through September 29 also carries particular significance for lower-income wallets in developing markets across South Asia and Africa, where on-chain transaction costs can meaningfully affect participation. How volume holds after the subsidy expires will be an especially important signal for this user segment. Robinhood is also pursuing a regulated brokerage presence in Indonesia through its pending acquisition of PT Buana Capital Sekuritas, a move being watched as a possible template for broader emerging-market entry. Developers building on Arbitrum-compatible infrastructure in Bangalore, Lagos, or Nairobi can build directly on top of Robinhood Chain's liquidity without a formal partnership. The prediction markets products, however, remain practically inaccessible to most users in those regions due to CFTC jurisdictional limits and the absence of local regulatory frameworks for event contracts.

The gas subsidy expiration at the end of September will be the first real test of whether Robinhood Chain's user numbers hold when transaction costs are no longer absorbed by the company. StoneX's 2029 revenue forecast of nearly $1 billion from the chain alone implies sustained growth well beyond the current subsidy period. Whether the on-chain activity metrics survive that transition will go a long way toward validating or challenging Palmer's model.