21Shares Says Bitcoin's Post-Halving Slide Is Shallower Than History Suggests, Sets $100K Year-End Target
Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its all-time high, but a new mid-year report from crypto ETP issuer 21Shares argues the current drawdown is structurally milder than previous cycles and frames a recovery toward $100,000 as its base case for year-end 2026.
Published June 24, the firm's "State of Crypto 2026: Mid-Year Update" audits ten forecasts 21Shares made in December 2025. Bitcoin hit $126,198 on October 6, 2025, then shed more than half its value over the following months, settling near $62,520 to $64,200 as of this writing. That is a painful drop by any measure. But 21Shares argues it looks less catastrophic when measured against the 85% collapse that followed the 2017 peak and the 75% wipeout after 2021's top.
"Heading into the year, it had almost become consensus that Bitcoin's four-year cycle was finished, but the price action still looks familiar," said Eliezer Ndinga, Head of Research at 21Shares.
The Halving Math and Why This Cycle Feels Different
Bitcoin's fourth halving occurred in April 2024, cutting the rate of new coin issuance from roughly 1.7% annual growth to 0.85%. With 94% of all Bitcoin already mined, the mechanical supply shock from a halving is shrinking with each cycle. In a standalone research post titled "Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Broken?" published on the 21Shares research portal at 21shares.com, firm analyst Darius Moukhtarzade argues that the traditional four-year cycle may be stretching toward five years as institutional participation deepens and liquidity waves lengthen.
The biggest structural shift is the January 2024 launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. These products introduced a category of long-only buyers, including pension funds, asset managers, and corporate treasuries, that tends to hold through price volatility rather than sell into it. The result is lower-amplitude price swings and macro-correlated price action that has replaced the retail-driven euphoria of earlier cycles.
That dynamic shows up in the ETP data. Global crypto ETP assets under management stand at $140 billion, down 15% year-to-date due to price declines. But the actual number of Bitcoin coins held in those products sits at 1.25 million, within 8% of an all-time high. "Spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed almost $2 billion year-to-date," Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares, told CoinDesk in April 2026. "Bitcoin rivals mega-cap equities like Nvidia in terms of liquidity."
On-Chain Signals Point to Fair Value, Not Capitulation
Several on-chain metrics support the report's measured tone. Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is a statistical measure that normalizes the ratio of market capitalization to realized capitalization, expressing how many standard deviations the current reading sits above or below its long-run historical mean. As of mid-June, that score stands at 0.41.
Scores below zero have historically marked cycle bottoms, while scores above 7 have marked cycle tops. At 0.41, the metric places Bitcoin in a zone analysts describe as fair value, well above historical floor territory and far below the levels associated with previous cycle peaks.
The aggregate realized price, essentially what the average holder paid for their coins, is approximately $62,120. That figure aligns closely with where Bitcoin is trading today. At the peaks of 2017 and 2021, the market price ran to 250 to 300% above the realized price. The current premium is around 41%, a historically modest reading.
21Shares identifies $54,000 as an investor cost-basis floor and a key structural support level for the current cycle.
Fritz noted in April 2026 that a sustained move above the 200-day moving average, which stood in the $85,000 to $90,000 range at that time, would signal a stronger reversal toward the $100,000 target.
What This Means for Users in South Asia and Africa
The cycle narrative matters differently depending on where you are.
In South Asia, India ranked first globally in crypto adoption in 2025 according to Chainalysis. Separately, TRM Labs' Q1 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index placed India fourth in retail activity for the quarter, recording $46 billion in tracked volumes, a decline of only 6% year-over-year versus a 20% global average drop.
Pakistan ranked third in Chainalysis' 2025 adoption index, and at current exchange rates Bitcoin trades at approximately PKR 17,157,164 per coin (based on CoinGecko data from early June 2026; readers should verify this figure against live rates at time of reading). For users in markets dealing with significant currency depreciation, the on-chain cost basis stability near $62,000 matters as much as any dollar-denominated price target. Pakistan's crypto ambitions have gained additional profile through Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao's role as strategic adviser to the Pakistan Crypto Council, positioning the country as a regional hub for digital asset development.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, on-chain volume reached $205 billion between July 2024 and June 2025, a 52% year-over-year increase. Nigeria alone accounted for $92.1 billion of that figure. Roughly 59% of crypto-active Nigerians hold USDT (Tether's stablecoin) as a direct hedge against Naira devaluation. The regulatory environment across the region has also evolved in ways that underpin longer-term confidence. Nigeria's Investments and Securities Act 2025 formally recognizes digital assets under Nigerian SEC oversight. Kenya signed its Virtual Asset Service Providers Bill in October 2025, establishing dual oversight under the Central Bank of Kenya and the Capital Markets Authority, and the country debuted in the top 20 of the 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index. For users in these markets, the confirmation that institutional holders are not exiting Bitcoin despite a 50% price drop may carry more weight than any specific price forecast.
The Road to Year-End
The $100,000 target is 21Shares' base case, not a guarantee. It depends on macroeconomic variables including Federal Reserve rate policy, dollar strength, and geopolitical sentiment. The report also flags momentum in real-world asset tokenization, with $31 billion in tokenized assets on public blockchains and $15 billion in tokenized US Treasuries alone, as a signal that crypto infrastructure is maturing beyond speculative trading.
One seasonal note worth tracking comes from LMAX Group analyst Joel Kruger, writing independently of the 21Shares report: October has historically been Bitcoin's strongest month, averaging a 22% gain since 2013. That seasonal pattern places the fourth quarter in focus as a potential recovery window, a timeline that happens to align with 21Shares' own year-end price target, though the two observations originate from entirely separate sources and analyses.