Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange now valued at $22 billion, launched a new advocacy organization called Americans for Fair Markets on Friday, enlisting Taylor Budowich, a former White House Deputy Chief of Staff under President Trump, as a strategic advisor. The group's stated purpose is to counter what Kalshi describes as a misinformation campaign by casino and sports betting interests seeking to restrict prediction market access ahead of an active Senate hearing on the sector.

The move signals that the fight over how Washington classifies prediction markets has moved well beyond the regulatory dockets. Kalshi has spent nearly $500,000 lobbying Congress and the CFTC in 2026 alone, and the launch of Americans for Fair Markets adds a dedicated communications and paid media operation to that effort. The new group will work alongside the broader Coalition for Prediction Markets, which already includes Coinbase, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Underdog and is led by former US Representative Sean Patrick Maloney as CEO, with former House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry serving as Senior Advisor. Americans for Fair Markets is positioned as a more combative, campaign-style vehicle rather than a standard industry coalition.

The immediate target is FairPredicts, a self-described nonpartisan market integrity watchdog widely believed to be funded by gambling industry interests. FairPredicts ran a six-figure ad campaign in Washington this week claiming that 67 percent of all profits on leading prediction market platforms flow to just 0.1 percent of accounts, and that fewer than 2,000 users have collectively netted nearly half a billion dollars. A Kalshi spokeswoman responded bluntly: "Smells like a casino-led effort." FairPredicts has not publicly identified its funders.

Budowich served as White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications, Personnel, and Public Liaison from January to September 2025, overseeing communications strategy, public liaison functions, cabinet affairs, and speechwriting. Before his White House role, he served as executive director of the MAGA Inc. PAC and earlier worked with Tea Party Express, a background that illustrates the depth of the conservative political networks Kalshi is drawing on for this effort. He now sits on the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. His involvement in Kalshi's advocacy push reflects the broader political weight the industry is trying to bring to bear as Congress moves toward a legislative framework. Senators Dave McCormick (R-PA) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) introduced the bipartisan Prediction Market Act of 2026 earlier this year, which would establish a federal regulatory structure for the sector. Separately, Congress is considering the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, which would prohibit elected officials and political appointees from trading prediction market contracts on non-public information.

The stakes of the federal versus state jurisdiction question are significant. Eleven states have issued cease-and-desist orders against prediction market operators, contending that the platforms fall under state gaming law rather than federal commodity law. States collectively estimate they have lost more than $600 million in sports betting tax revenue to prediction markets. Kalshi's federal legal standing received a significant boost in October 2024, when a federal court ruled against a CFTC attempt to block the company's political event contracts, finding the agency had exceeded its statutory authority. Building on that precedent, on April 6 the Third Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi's operations in New Jersey, ruling that federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act likely applies. That ruling conflicts with outcomes in other district courts, and the legal question remains unsettled. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig withdrew a Biden-era proposed rule that would have banned political and sports event contracts, and stated his agency will pursue "new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act."

Kalshi's market position has strengthened considerably while the legal battles continue. The platform reported annualized trading volume of $178 billion in May 2026, up from $52 billion just six months prior. Institutional trading volume grew 800 percent over the same period. Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F round led by Coatue Management in early May, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest. Annualized revenue now exceeds $1.5 billion.

The regulatory outcome in Washington carries real consequences for markets well outside the United States. Regulators in India and Nigeria have historically referenced US commodity and derivatives frameworks when designing local rules. Prediction markets already have a foothold across Africa: Luno launched crypto-native prediction market products in Nigeria and South Africa in March 2026, and Predicta Markets operates across Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania, and India with M-Pesa and UPI payment integration. Polymarket, built on the Polygon blockchain, draws users across both Africa and South Asia despite not being available to US participants. A federally legitimized US framework would almost certainly accelerate formal recognition in these regions, where the underlying user behavior maps closely onto prediction market infrastructure. Nigeria is home to an estimated 168.7 million active sports bettors and Kenya to approximately 58.3 million, figures that illustrate the scale of retail engagement prediction market platforms are positioned to serve. However, the concentration figures cited by FairPredicts represent a serious regulatory concern for emerging market watchdogs, many of whom have made retail investor protection a priority in digital asset rulemaking.

The definitional fight at the center of this lobbying war, whether prediction markets are commodity instruments subject to federal oversight or gambling products subject to state gaming commissions, will not be resolved quickly. With bipartisan Senate legislation in play, an active rulemaking at the CFTC, ongoing state litigation, and now a well-connected political operation working the media environment, the regulatory template that emerges from Washington over the next 12 to 18 months is likely to influence how these markets develop across three continents.