Bitcoin is trading near $62,000 as of early June 2026, roughly 51% below its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,200. Liniger told The Block that the same institutional and retail money that might otherwise flow into bitcoin is instead being absorbed by AI investment, and that the trend could reverse once those AI bets begin generating returns.

The Numbers Behind the Thesis

The data broadly supports his framing. Combined bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded fund) and corporate treasury investments fell to around $12 billion in 2026, down from $60 billion in 2025, an 80% collapse in net inflows according to research firm Bernstein.

Over roughly four weeks leading into mid-June, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $5.4 billion in cumulative outflows. In the single week ending May 25–26, digital asset funds bled $1.47 billion, with bitcoin vehicles accounting for $1.315 billion of that figure.

On the other side of the ledger, projected institutional spending on AI infrastructure is expected to hit $500 billion in 2026. Microsoft and Meta alone have committed over $300 billion in combined capital expenditure.

Bernstein analysts have described the capital rotation as reflecting "investor appetite for emerging technologies rather than fundamental weakness in Bitcoin itself," and characterised the institutional adoption pipeline, including ETFs, pension funds, sovereign investors, corporate treasuries, and wealth management platforms, as structurally intact beneath the surface noise.

Pressure is also coming from inside the mining industry. Major bitcoin miners have sold more than 15,000 BTC to fund conversions into AI data centre operations. Mining firms IREN, Hut 8, and TeraWulf have individually secured major AI infrastructure contracts: IREN locked in a $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft covering 76,000 NVIDIA GPUs; Hut 8 signed a $9.8 billion, 15-year AI lease in Texas; and TeraWulf secured $12.8 billion in contracted AI revenue, bringing the three firms' combined commitments to roughly $32 billion.

Industry projections put the sector's AI revenue share at a figure that could reach as much as 70% of total revenue by year-end, up from around 30% today.

A Darker Short-Term Scenario

Liniger's conditional optimism is shared, in broad terms, by BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom head Arthur Hayes, though Hayes paints a more uncomfortable near-term picture.

Hayes has estimated, across commentary published on CoinDesk in February 2026 and in further reporting through June 10, 2026, that AI-related companies have issued roughly $1.5 trillion in debt since November 2022, a figure that closely matches the $1.5 trillion increase in global M2 money supply over the same period. His argument: AI financing directly absorbed the liquidity that, in prior cycles, would have fed into bitcoin and crypto markets.

Hayes has warned that if the AI investment cycle falters before it matures, crypto markets could take an initial hit as financial stress spreads. He has argued, however, that central bank responses to such a downturn would likely inject fresh liquidity into markets, ultimately driving bitcoin and ether higher. Both Liniger and Hayes converge on a long-term bullish view; they disagree on how rough the path there might be.

Adding to the liquidity competition, SpaceX launched its IPO on June 11 with a $75 billion fundraising target, reserving approximately 30% of shares for retail investors. IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI are also anticipated. Each draws from the same retail pool that has historically been active in bitcoin and crypto ETFs.

What This Means for Users in High-Adoption Markets

For tens of millions of bitcoin holders across South Asia and Africa, this is not an abstract market mechanics story. India currently ranks first globally in the 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index, compiled using Chainalysis methodology, with Pakistan ranking eighth, with 18.2 million crypto users.

Nigeria sits second globally, with bitcoin comprising 89% of crypto purchases in that country. Four Sub-Saharan African nations rank in the global top 20: Nigeria at second, Ethiopia at tenth, Kenya at thirteenth, and Ghana at twentieth. Sub-Saharan Africa's crypto adoption grew 52% through 2025, driven heavily by remittances, inflation hedging, and peer-to-peer commerce. A 51% bitcoin price decline translates directly into reduced purchasing power for remittance recipients across corridors such as Nigeria to the UK, Kenya to its diaspora, and South Africa to Zimbabwe.

For those users, the Liniger thesis carries a specific weight. If the AI capital drain is cyclical rather than permanent, current prices may look attractive to long-term holders in retrospect. That conclusion carries a genuine risk: a prolonged AI-driven capital drought could suppress prices well below current levels before any reversal materialises.

One key on-chain signal supports a degree of patience: holders who have controlled their bitcoin for 155 days or more now account for more than 78% of total supply, suggesting experienced, long-term participants are not yet selling at scale.

Infrastructure Building Continues Regardless

Even as prices compress, institutional Bitcoin infrastructure in Africa is actively expanding. Sygnia Limited, managing R20.5 billion in assets, launched South Africa's first Life Bitcoin Plus Fund in mid-2025. Altify, backed by JSE-listed Sabvest, is offering crypto-linked products to institutional clients. More broadly, African companies are actively building Bitcoin treasury strategies, a trend documented by TechCabal as recently as June 2026. The Adopting Bitcoin Cape Town 2026 conference, scheduled for later this year, signals that the region's developer and business community remains organised and forward-looking.

Whether Liniger's thesis proves correct depends on outcomes that no analyst can reliably forecast: the pace of AI monetisation, the potential for an AI investment correction, and the speed of any central bank response. What is clear is that the forces pressing on bitcoin prices in mid-2026 are macro in origin and global in reach, and that the users most dependent on bitcoin for everyday financial access have the least margin for a prolonged wait.