The US Senate Banking Committee held a markup vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act today, May 14, 2026, the procedural gate through which the bill must pass before reaching a full Senate floor vote. The Clarity Act would grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodity spot markets, maintain Securities and Exchange Commission jurisdiction over security tokens, and establish a dual-registration compliance regime for assets that straddle both categories. But Joshua Riezman, Chief Strategy Officer and Global Deputy General Counsel at GSR Markets, told The Block he puts the bill's chances of clearing the current Senate session at below 50 percent. His assessment sits below even the more cautious analyst estimates and well below recent Polymarket odds, which have ranged between 59 and 73 percent in May 2026. Galaxy Research has placed odds at roughly 50 percent or lower, broadly consistent with Riezman's read, suggesting the optimism reflected in prediction markets may not be shared by those closest to the legislative detail.

Riezman's pessimism centers on two substantive problems.

The first is a long-running fight over whether stablecoin issuers can pass yield on to holders. This dispute was deliberately deferred from the GENIUS Act, which passed the Senate 68 to 30 in June 2025 and was signed into law, leaving the yield question for the Clarity Act process to resolve. Banking groups, led by the American Bankers Association, have mobilised opposition on the grounds that interest-bearing stablecoins would function too similarly to bank deposits, and have sent more than 8,000 letters to Senate offices opposing any yield compromise. A bipartisan fix proposed in March by Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Senator Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) draws a line between passive yield (not permitted) and activity-based rewards tied to actual platform use, a category the legislation terms "bona fide activities" (permitted). Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong pulled the company's support for the bill in January 2026 over the yield issue specifically, then reversed course on May 1 after reviewing updated language. The Blockchain Association has also backed the compromise. But the debate is not settled.

The second problem involves ethics and conflict-of-interest provisions. Language of this kind appeared in a September 2025 draft of the bill and was backed by twelve Democratic senators. It was first diluted in January 2026 and then removed entirely from the current 309-page version, a gradual erosion that has sharpened Democratic opposition over time. Bloomberg has estimated that President Trump and his family have accumulated roughly 1.4 billion dollars in crypto-related gains, including from the DeFi and stablecoin project World Liberty Financial and the TRUMP memecoin. Democrats view the removal of ethics language as a direct concession to the White House and have made it a condition of their support.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand was unambiguous: "This provision will be part of this bill, or it will not go forward." Her position draws additional political weight from polling showing that 73 percent of voters support restricting senior officials from profiting off industries they regulate. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who filed 44 of the more than 130 amendments submitted before the markup, described the absence of ethics rules as "stunning" and said investors, national security, and the financial system are all at risk under the current text. The White House, through crypto adviser Patrick Witt, has drawn its own line, saying ethics rules would need to apply uniformly "from the president all the way down to the brand new intern" and cannot single out specific families or individuals. That framing leaves little visible room for compromise. The bill requires 60 Senate votes to advance, a supermajority threshold that makes Democratic buy-in a mathematical necessity, not a political courtesy. The White House has set a July 4, 2026 target for passage, but a packed Senate calendar and summer recess pressure make that timeline tight even under optimistic scenarios. Not everyone in the industry shares that pessimism. Steve Yelderman, of an Ethereum-focused advocacy organisation, offered a contrasting read: "I think it's going to pass, based on all the great progress," a view that makes the distance between industry optimists and Polymarket's midrange odds feel genuinely contested rather than settled.

GSR itself is not a peripheral observer. Founded in 2013 by former Goldman Sachs traders, the firm is one of the world's largest crypto market makers and liquidity providers, operating across spot, derivatives, and structured products. Standard Chartered's SC Ventures made its first external strategic investment in GSR earlier this month, valuing the firm at approximately 1 billion dollars. GSR recently expanded its token advisory operations through 57 million dollars in acquisitions, including the firms Autonomous and Architech, and has established new legal entities in South Korea and the UAE. Riezman's public skepticism is a signal from a firm with direct institutional exposure to the regulatory outcome, not a detached opinion.

The stakes extend well beyond US borders. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, stablecoins are not a speculative instrument. They are infrastructure. Stablecoins now account for an estimated 43 percent of all crypto transaction volume in the region. A 2026 BVNK report found that 79 percent of crypto-active Africans hold stablecoins, compared to roughly 45 percent in high-income markets. Nigeria alone has an estimated 26 million stablecoin users, many of whom depend on USDT and USDC for savings, remittances, and cross-border trade in the absence of a stable domestic currency. The Central Bank of Nigeria formed a 15-member working group in late 2025 to study stablecoin adoption at scale, a sign that regulators are actively engaging with the depth of that use. A Mercy Corps pilot in Kenya found that stablecoin-based remittances reduced transfer fees from 29 percent to 2 percent. Kenya has also enacted its own VASP licensing framework as of October 2025, placing oversight of virtual asset service providers under the Central Bank of Kenya and the Capital Markets Authority, making it an active regulatory actor rather than simply a data point in the regional picture. A failed Clarity Act does not immediately disrupt these grassroots flows, but it does slow the entry of regulated US institutions such as custodians, exchanges, and market makers into African markets, keeping those markets less liquid and more fragmented. Analysts at the Center for Global Development have flagged a longer-term tension as well: the GENIUS Act's formalisation of dollar-backed stablecoins as globally credible instruments has already begun accelerating dollarisation dynamics in inflation-prone economies. A Clarity Act that further entrenches dollar-stablecoin dominance without yield caps could intensify capital flight from domestic banking systems, compounding the effect already set in motion by the GENIUS Act.

In South Asia, India's stablecoin policy discussion paper has been shelved again, reportedly blocked by the Reserve Bank of India, which continues to promote its own Digital Rupee CBDC now at roughly 7 million retail users. Indian Web3 developers working for global markets already face a 30 percent flat tax on crypto gains plus a 4 percent cess, as well as a separate 1 percent transaction deduction at source. Without a clear US framework, structuring token launches or institutional partnerships with US-regulated counterparties carries unacceptable legal risk. Industry groups including the Bharat Web3 Association have warned that continued ambiguity is pushing developers to Dubai, Singapore, and the EU. The regulatory uncertainty also bears directly on Pakistan and Bangladesh, two of the world's largest remittance-receiving nations, where stablecoin infrastructure could dramatically reduce the cost of cross-border transfers and broaden financial access for populations with limited banking options. A stalled Clarity Act prolongs the ambiguity that keeps US-regulated institutions from fully engaging with these corridors.

If the Clarity Act stalls or fails in the current session, the SEC's historically broad interpretation of what counts as a security remains the operative US standard, a default that affects any non-US developer or exchange with a US-facing product. The bill originated in the House as H.R.3633, introduced by House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill, and has already cleared the House. The next milestone is a full Senate floor vote, which first requires surviving the markup process that began today. A successful Senate vote would send the bill to the president for signature, completing the legislative process.