Kalshi Raises $1.12B in Private Offering as Valuation Nears $40B, but One of the World's Largest Internet Markets Just Closed Its Doors
Prediction market exchange Kalshi disclosed in a fresh SEC filing that it has collected $1.12 billion in equity financing since April 2026, part of a structured $1.5 billion private offering, even as the platform remains inaccessible to users across India and more than 55 other jurisdictions.
The filing, made under SEC Regulation D (a framework that allows companies to raise capital from accredited and institutional investors without a public prospectus), confirms that, by calculation, roughly $380 million of the current offering has yet to be drawn from the total structured amount.
Separately, the company is in advanced negotiations for an additional $750 million round that would value the New York-based exchange at $40 billion, with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management expected to lead, according to a CoinDesk report from August 13.
That figure would nearly double the $22 billion valuation Kalshi secured at its Series F in May 2026, when Coatue Management led a $1 billion investment.
Rarely Seen Revenue Growth
The investor appetite is not hard to explain when looking at the underlying revenue numbers. Kalshi's annualized revenue hit $4 billion in July 2026, up from roughly $735 million in December 2025 and just $25 million at the end of 2024. That trajectory amounts to approximately 16,000% growth in under two years, driven largely by the FIFA World Cup 2026. Sports event contracts now represent more than 80% of trading volume on the platform, and daily trading exceeded $1 billion from mid-June onward.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, meaning users trade binary contracts tied to real-world outcomes: election results, sports scores, economic indicators, and weather events. The platform charges transaction fees between 0.07% and 7% depending on a contract's implied probability. In March 2026, Kalshi launched Kalshi Klear LLC, its own CFTC-approved clearinghouse, positioning itself less as a startup and more as regulated financial infrastructure.
According to Sacra, Sequoia Capital has stated that Kalshi now holds approximately 95% U.S. market share in prediction markets.
India Out
For users outside the United States, the picture is far more complicated. India represents the clearest case of a market lost. The country's Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, which came into force on May 1, 2026, explicitly prohibits prediction markets.
India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) sent Kalshi a warning letter on April 25. Indian ISPs blocked the platform by late May, and on June 17, Kalshi updated its Member Agreement to formally bar users domiciled in India. As recently as April 2026, India had ranked among Kalshi's top five traffic sources globally, according to web analytics firm Similarweb.
The company now operates across more than 140 countries but maintains an explicit restricted list covering more than 55 jurisdictions.
The US Regulatory Battle
Within the US itself, Kalshi has faced a separate regulatory front. The backstory matters for understanding it. In 2023, the CFTC under the Biden administration blocked Kalshi from listing contracts tied to congressional control, characterizing the products as akin to gambling. A US District Court ruled in Kalshi's favor in 2024, and the CFTC officially dropped its legal challenge in May 2025. That outcome cleared the path for the expanded product lineup Kalshi offers today.
Now the CFTC has brought action against nine states, including New York, Illinois, and Arizona, arguing that federal law gives the agency exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and that states cannot reclassify these products as illegal gambling.
More than 36 states have filed opposing briefs. A federal court in Tennessee granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction in February 2026, finding that sports contracts are likely classified as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, which would preempt state gambling rules.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig has publicly stated that "states cannot invade the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over CFTC-regulated designated contract markets by re-characterizing swaps trading on DCMs [federally designated contract markets] as illegal gambling."
What This Means for African Markets
Across Africa, the situation is fragmented. Nigeria, the continent's largest crypto market by volume, does not appear on Kalshi's restricted list, leaving Nigerian users technically able to trade. Kenya is a different story: following the Gambling Control Act that took effect in August 2025, Kenya's new regulatory authority has treated prediction markets as unlicensed gambling products, and Kalshi restricts Kenyan users accordingly.
A broader list of African jurisdictions, including Algeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Somalia, also appear as restricted under Kalshi's Member Agreement.
The majority of sub-Saharan African markets fall into a gray zone: no specific prediction market law exists, meaning users can access the platform but have no legal protections and face the risk that regulators could reclassify these products at any point. For developers and fintech founders in Lagos or Cape Town, Kalshi's institutional momentum signals that prediction markets are graduating into recognized financial infrastructure. That same legitimacy, though, is what tends to attract regulatory attention. Nigeria and South Africa remain unaddressed in Kalshi's restrictions for now, but there is no guarantee that stays true.
For users in restricted markets who want exposure to prediction markets, Polymarket (a decentralized exchange built on the Polygon network) is sometimes raised as an option, but it too is banned in India and several African countries. Polymarket has its own restricted jurisdictions list and faces similar regulatory pressure, but its non-custodial structure makes enforcement harder to apply consistently.
What Comes Next
CEO Tarek Mansour ruled out a 2026 IPO in June, though he acknowledged the conversation is happening: "A company of our financial profile with the rate of growth that we're seeing, that sort of conversation has to happen. We're basically thinking about it, but obviously, we don't have an answer yet."
Reporting from CNBC and Bettors Insider points to 2027 or 2028 as the more realistic window for a public listing.
With total capital raised across all rounds now approaching $2.9 billion and the $750 million round still under negotiation, Kalshi will enter any eventual IPO process with a substantial capital base already assembled.
Whether that capital helps resolve its jurisdictional challenges, or simply funds further legal battles, remains the central open question.