Robinhood Posts Record $1.3B Quarter as Crypto Revenue Falls 38%, Prediction Markets Fill the Gap
Robinhood Markets reported record total revenue of $1.308 billion for Q2 2026, with results released after market close on Tuesday, beating analyst estimates by a wide margin, even as its cryptocurrency business posted its second consecutive quarter of steep year-over-year declines.
Robinhood Markets reported record total revenue of $1.308 billion for Q2 2026, with results released after market close on Tuesday, beating analyst estimates by a wide margin, even as its cryptocurrency business posted its second consecutive quarter of steep year-over-year declines. Net interest revenues, the company's largest single revenue line at $389 million, grew 9% year-over-year, while the results as a whole signal a company in active transition, betting on prediction markets and a new blockchain product to offset weakening retail crypto demand.
Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.62, roughly 47% above the consensus estimate of around $0.42 to $0.45. Net income reached $573 million, up 64% from the prior quarter. Despite the beat, Robinhood's stock fell approximately 4% in after-hours trading, closing near $90.02, as investors focused on the crypto shortfall and a cautious forward outlook.
Crypto Falls While Prediction Markets Surge
Cryptocurrency trading generated $100 million in revenue for the quarter, down 38% from $160 million in Q2 2025 and continuing a slide that began in Q1 2026, when crypto revenue dropped 47% year-over-year to $134 million. The decline tracks directly with broader market conditions. According to CoinGecko's Q2 2026 Industry Report, total crypto market capitalization fell 12.6% during the quarter to $2.1 trillion, its lowest level since September 2024 and roughly 52% below the October 2025 peak. Bitcoin lost 14.2% over the quarter and Ethereum dropped 25.4%. Total spot trading volume across centralized exchanges fell 27.9% quarter-over-quarter to $1.95 trillion for the period, with May 2026 recording a monthly low of approximately $620 billion.
What absorbed the blow was a 10x year-over-year surge in event contracts, Robinhood's prediction market product, which generated $156 million in Q2 2026 across 13.6 billion contracts traded. Analysts at Bernstein had forecast ahead of the results that prediction markets would surpass crypto as Robinhood's largest transaction revenue line in the quarter, a projection the Q2 results appear to confirm. Bernstein projects the prediction market business could generate $586 million for full-year 2026 and reach $1.7 billion annually by 2028. The prediction market exchange and clearinghouse infrastructure operates under a CFTC license and is built through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, providing a meaningful degree of regulatory durability to this revenue line. Options revenue also climbed 29% to $342 million, equities revenue nearly doubled to $129 million, net interest revenues reached $389 million (up 9% year-over-year), and other revenues grew 54% to $143 million.
A New Blockchain and Global Reach
Four weeks before the earnings release, on July 1, Robinhood launched the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 network built on Arbitrum technology. The chain enables tokenized representations of U.S. equities, called Stock Tokens, accessible in more than 120 countries through the Robinhood Wallet. The tokens can be traded around the clock and used as collateral on decentralized finance protocols including Uniswap and 1inch. Robinhood also launched a lending product offering roughly 7% annual yield on USDG, a dollar-backed stablecoin, with coverage underwritten through Lloyd's of London, though the specific coverage parameters have not been publicly disclosed.
The chain also features an Agentic Trading product, an AI-native architecture that allows third-party autonomous trading agents to connect via API, as well as access to perpetual futures through the Lighter DEX. Both features are designed to attract developers and institutional participants to the Robinhood Chain ecosystem.
One detail retail investors should not overlook: Stock Tokens are classified as debt securities, not actual equity. Holders receive no shareholder rights, voting rights, or dividend entitlements. U.S. residents are excluded from the product entirely. The distinction between a tokenized note and genuine share ownership is not always obvious to first-time investors, particularly in markets where financial literacy around structured products is limited.
"Whether it's the Robinhood Chain, Robinhood Ventures, or Trump Accounts, our product velocity is focused on one goal: making everyone an owner," said Vlad Tenev, Chairman and CEO, on the earnings call. "Broad ownership is essential to a free, stable, and prosperous society," he added.
What This Means Outside the United States
The most concrete regional moves are in Southeast Asia. Robinhood has signed acquisition agreements for PT Buana Capital Sekuritas, a licensed Indonesian brokerage, and PT Pedagang Aset Kripto, a licensed Indonesian digital asset trader. Both deals await approval from Indonesia's financial regulator, OJK, which has signaled it will scrutinize investor protection standards and data security compliance, including adherence to Indonesia's Personal Data Protection Law (UU PDP), which imposes data localisation and processing requirements that Robinhood will need to address. Indonesia has over 19 million capital market investors and 17 million crypto investors, making it one of the highest retail crypto participation rates globally.
In Singapore, Robinhood received in-principle approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore in April 2026 for brokerage and custody services. The Singapore entity, supported by Robinhood's Bitstamp Asia subsidiary, would likely serve as the regulatory hub for broader regional operations.
For users in South Asia, the picture is more complicated. Countries including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka fall within the 120-plus-country scope of Robinhood Chain's Stock Token product, but local securities regulations have not explicitly cleared foreign-issued tokenized assets for retail access. Users in those markets who access Stock Tokens through a self-custody wallet may be doing so in a legal grey zone. India's existing framework includes a 30% flat tax on crypto gains and a 1% Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) on crypto transactions, conditions that already suppress domestic trading volumes and would compound the access challenge further.
Robinhood does not yet operate in Africa, but the architecture of Robinhood Chain, reachable via any compatible self-custody wallet, is structurally relevant for markets like Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa, where demand for U.S. equity access has sustained platforms such as Bamboo, Trove, and EasyEquities for years. Across most African jurisdictions, regulated on-chain prediction markets do not yet exist, which places Robinhood's prediction market pivot in a distinctive light. The continent has vibrant informal and mobile-based prediction activity with no licensed on-chain equivalent anywhere in the region, a structural gap that the Robinhood Chain architecture could eventually address if regulatory frameworks evolve to permit it.
What Comes Next
Total platform assets reached $369 billion, up 32% year-over-year, and funded customers grew to 28.4 million globally, with international funded users crossing one million for the first time. Average revenue per user reached $187, up 24% year-over-year, a figure that illustrates how much more Robinhood is extracting per customer even as absolute crypto trading volumes decline. Robinhood Gold subscriptions climbed 39% to 4.8 million, providing a more stable recurring revenue floor. The company was also designated sole broker for the Treasury-backed "Trump Accounts" savings program, which attracted nearly $1.5 billion in deposits after its July 4 launch.
CoinDesk noted that Robinhood's crypto revenue figures serve as an early signal for Coinbase's upcoming Q2 results, given both platforms share heavy exposure to retail crypto trading. A continued slump in transaction fees, mirroring the global decline in centralized exchange volume, suggests the sector broadly faces a difficult half-year comparison.
For Robinhood, the path forward appears to run through prediction markets, tokenized assets, and regulated international expansion rather than a near-term crypto recovery. Robinhood Chain represents a meaningful structural bet, though on-chain liquidity remains nascent: early users may face wider spreads and shallower market depth compared to established decentralized exchanges, a practical limitation worth bearing in mind before the infrastructure matures.