Investment firm Bernstein lowered its price target for Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) from $190 to $140 on July 29, 2026, while keeping an Outperform rating on the stock. The revision reflects mounting competitive pressure from Open USD, a yield-sharing stablecoin consortium announced on June 30, but Bernstein's analysts argue the threat to USDC will diminish over time as network effects hold.

The cut marks the second downward revision in Bernstein's target since Circle went public on June 5, 2026. The firm originally set a $230 target at initiation, describing Circle as the "internet dollar network for the next decade." That figure dropped to $190 amid interest rate concerns. The $140 cut came with the July 29 note, Bernstein's first target reduction since the Open USD announcement on June 30, which sent CRCL shares down 17.5% in a single session. In the immediate aftermath of that June 30 selloff, Bernstein had explicitly held its $190 target before lowering it nearly a month later. Even at $140, Bernstein remains well above the Street consensus of roughly $122.56 across 24 analysts. Among the firms covering the stock, Baird holds an Outperform rating with a $100 target, Goldman Sachs rates it Neutral at $96, and JPMorgan also rates it Neutral near $80. Mizuho holds the most bearish position on the Street, with an Underperform rating and a $50 target.

What Open USD Actually Does

Open USD, developed by a consortium called Open Standard, is backed by more than 140 partners including BlackRock, Coinbase, Mastercard, Stripe, and Visa. The stablecoin is pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar and backed by dollar reserves and U.S. Treasuries. Its distinguishing feature is economic: rather than letting the issuer pocket all interest income from those reserves, Open USD distributes yield to partner distributors and retains only a management fee. That structure targets the core of Circle's business model directly. Reserve interest income accounts for roughly 96% of Circle's total revenue, according to analyst estimates.

CoinShares analyst Luke Nolan described the project's potential plainly in a July 15 note: "If successful, Open USD could push stablecoins further into mainstream payments by making the economics and governance more attractive for the businesses actually using them." CoinShares called Open USD "the most credible threat yet to Circle Internet's USDC."

Bernstein's counter-argument leans on supply data. USDC circulating supply sits near all-time highs at roughly $73 to $77 billion, up 72% year over year. In June 2026, USDC accounted for $1.21 trillion of the $1.79 trillion in total monthly stablecoin transaction volume, or about 67% of the market. According to Bernstein's research note, USDC processed $5.3 trillion in transactions during the first half of 2026, a figure the firm cites as evidence that demand has not been disrupted by Open USD buzz. That H1 figure implies a share of roughly 60% of stablecoin transaction volume across the full first half of 2026, a period in which USDC's monthly share climbed to 67% in June alone.

The Coinbase Problem Has a Date Attached

Circle paid Coinbase $1.4 billion in 2025, up from $908 million the year before, for its distribution partnership. That figure represents roughly 54% of Circle's revenue. Under the current arrangement, Coinbase keeps 100% of reserve interest earned on USDC held on its platform and 50% on USDC held elsewhere. The collaboration agreement, originally signed August 18, 2023, comes up for renewal in August 2026. The fact that Coinbase is simultaneously a founding partner of Open USD raises questions about what leverage Coinbase carries into that negotiation.

Why This Matters in Lagos and Karachi

For readers outside the United States, the stakes in this analyst debate connect to everyday payment infrastructure. USDC and USDT together underpin cross-border payments across Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana. According to Launchpad.ng, dollar-pegged stablecoin transactions in Sub-Saharan Africa reached roughly $22 billion in volume in the most recent annual figures, accounting for about 43% of all regional crypto activity.

A 2026 survey by Launchpad.ng found 95% of Nigerian respondents prefer receiving payments in stablecoins rather than naira, largely because traditional remittance fees run 6 to 10% while stablecoin rails cost closer to 2%.

In South Asia, Pakistan launched a regulatory sandbox in late 2025 approving three stablecoin remittance pilots, and the UAE-to-Pakistan corridor, worth $24 billion annually, is a primary use case. USDC is embedded in fintech payment stacks across India and Bangladesh as well.

Open USD's planned expansion beyond its initial Solana launch includes Polygon, Stellar, and Aptos.

Stellar in particular carries significant traction in Africa and South Asian remittance corridors. The consortium also counts Standard Chartered, DBS, Grab, Mastercard, and Visa as partners, all of which operate extensively in those regions. For fintechs in Lagos or Karachi that are already built on USDC liquidity rails, however, migrating to an unproven network before it achieves meaningful depth is a real operational risk.

What to Watch Next

Open USD has not launched as of late July 2026, and Bernstein's thesis depends on that adoption gap remaining wide. The August 18 Coinbase renewal is the cleaner near-term signal: if Circle concedes more margin to keep its largest distributor on board, the bull case gets harder to defend regardless of supply figures. For developers and fintechs in emerging markets whose payment stacks run on USDC, that same renewal date is a direct signal of whether USDC distribution economics are about to shift in ways that affect infrastructure costs and partner incentives. If the deal renews on roughly existing terms, Bernstein's position looks more durable. Either way, the outcome will land within weeks.