Two voter surveys commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets and shared exclusively with Semafor on June 24 found consistent cross-party support for federal oversight of prediction market platforms. The bipartisan credibility of that finding rests on the design of the research: one survey was conducted by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio's firm and the other by the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group. Among Republican respondents, 48% favoured federal regulation compared with 27% who preferred state-level rules. Democrats split at 45% to 35% in favour of federal oversight. Only 8% of all voters surveyed supported an outright ban, while 67% said adults should be free to decide whether to participate. The surveys also found that 52% of voters under 35 have already used a prediction market platform, a figure that points to how deeply these products have penetrated younger demographics. A separate survey commissioned by the gambling-industry group "Gambling is Not Investing" and conducted by Morning Consult pushed back on that framing, with 81% of its respondents classifying prediction market sports betting as gambling.

The polls land during an unusually active stretch of federal and state activity around these platforms. Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events, from elections to sports results to economic data. They are legally structured as futures or swaps on what the Commodity Exchange Act calls "excluded commodities," which places them under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than state gambling boards. The CFTC published a formal Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on June 12 titled "Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations." The rule would create a three-step test for determining whether a specific event contract is contrary to the public interest and should be prohibited. The public comment period closes July 27, and if adopted the rule takes effect 60 days after final publication. Notably, the proposal explicitly excludes political elections and the Oscars from its definition of "gaming," while applying tighter scrutiny to contracts tied to individual player injuries or officiating decisions.

The CFTC has also moved on enforcement. The agency has filed federal lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin, arguing their state gambling laws are preempted by the CEA. Minnesota became the first state to ban Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar platforms outright, and the federal government sued to block that ban as well. A divided panel of the Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in April that the CEA preempts New Jersey's gambling laws as applied to event contracts traded on CFTC-registered designated contract markets (DCMs), affirming a preliminary injunction in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty. Judge Roth, writing in dissent, warned that sports event contracts are "virtually indistinguishable from betting products" on sportsbooks. A Pew Research Center report published June 23 found that 32 states restrict or ban election betting in some form, and at least 16 states have introduced legislation specifically targeting prediction markets this year.

The industry is not sitting still. Kalshi now clears roughly 2.7 billion dollars in weekly trades across more than 350,000 active markets, representing approximately 53% of global volume according to data from Chainalysis and DeFiRate. Polymarket generates about 2.1 billion dollars weekly, bringing the combined figure to more than 4.8 billion dollars per week. The Coalition for Prediction Markets, whose members include Kalshi and Crypto.com but not Polymarket, commissioned the voter polling released today. Kalshi spent 615,000 dollars on federal lobbying in 2025 and Polymarket spent 360,000 dollars, according to OpenSecrets. Kalshi opened a Washington office in January 2026 and hired former Biden administration official John Bivona as head of government relations; the company also brought on Stephanie Cutter, a former Obama administration aide, as a policy advisor. Jefrey Pollock of Global Strategy Group noted: "It's striking that even in such a polarized environment, voters from both parties have similar perspectives on prediction markets, preferring federal regulation to a state patchwork, rejecting an outright ban, and believing in freedom of choice."

The US jurisdictional fight carries direct consequences for users outside North America. India offers the sharpest example. In early 2026, both Kalshi and Polymarket began accepting Indian users, targeting cricket betting ahead of the IPL season. India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology responded quickly, issuing a blocking order against Polymarket and reportedly preparing a similar order for Kalshi under the Online Gaming (Regulation) Act, which prohibits real-money games of chance. In South Africa, analysts at the law firm ENS Africa describe prediction markets as sitting awkwardly across three overlapping regulatory regimes: crypto and FAIS regulation under the Financial Sector Conduct Authority, exchange control under the National Treasury's Capital Flow Management Regulations, and derivatives law under the Financial Markets Act. Because the National Gambling Amendment Act addressing interactive gambling has not yet been proclaimed into law, platforms cannot determine which regulator has authority or what licences apply. Worldwide, over 30 countries block major prediction platforms by applying gambling or binary options rules, according to CoinLaw.io. A US federal determination that event contracts are financial instruments rather than gambling would give regulators in both regions a cleaner legal model to consider.

CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig framed the stakes plainly in a statement on the agency's enforcement posture: the CFTC "will not allow overzealous state governments to undermine the agency's longstanding authority over these markets." Whether the courts, Congress, or the rulemaking process delivers a final answer remains open. The July 27 comment deadline on the NPRM is an entry point for non-US platforms, trade bodies, and developers to put their views on record before the rule is finalised.