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Bernstein analysts published a report this week projecting that Robinhood's prediction market revenue will reach $586 million in 2026, up from $150 million in 2025, a 286% year-over-year increase. The timing is deliberate: the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which kicked off in June with 104 matches across 48 teams, is the largest World Cup in history by match count, and by far the largest prediction market event of its kind. Bernstein called the tournament a "watershed moment" for the sector and identified prediction markets as the "largest single driver of incremental revenue" for Robinhood this year.

The revenue figure is not purely hypothetical. Robinhood reported an annualized run rate of $415 million from prediction markets as of March 31, 2026, according to the company's SEC 10-Q filing. That figure already represents roughly 17% of the company's total transaction-based income. The growth is tied in part to Robinhood's 2025 co-investment in Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse backed alongside Susquehanna International Group. Rather than acting purely as a retail distributor, Robinhood now captures spread revenue through Rothera. Bernstein describes this as a "structurally superior position" as the industry matures and competition increases.

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, such as which team wins a match or tournament. Prices reflect the implied probability of each outcome, similar to odds in traditional sports betting. The key distinction in the US context is regulatory: platforms operating under CFTC oversight can now legally offer sports event contracts following a January 2025 leadership change at the agency. That opening gave Kalshi and Robinhood a formal path that previously did not exist. Bernstein projects the World Cup will generate more than $3 billion in direct prediction market handle, with a broader $5 to $10 billion uplift across consumer prediction activity.

On-chain data supports that forecast. Polymarket, which settles contracts in USDC (a dollar-pegged stablecoin), recorded a single-day volume of $818.4 million on June 10, an all-time high. Cumulative volume on the World Cup Winner contract alone has crossed $2.34 billion. Individual match markets are also scaling: a Netherlands versus Japan group-stage contract drew more than $26 million. Combined open interest across Kalshi and Polymarket currently stands at $1.3 billion. For context, combined monthly prediction market volumes across the industry were below $5 billion as recently as September 2025. By April 2026, that figure had reached $24 billion. The pace of monetisation is also visible in adjacent platforms: Coinbase crossed $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue within two months of launching in early 2026. Bernstein has framed the sector's relationship to sports betting through what it calls a "TikTok, not Napster" analogy, arguing that prediction markets complement rather than disrupt existing wagering behaviour. That framing carries direct implications for how regulators in emerging markets may approach classification.

The growth story, however, is concentrated in a small number of markets. Bernstein noted that US prediction market adoption has been strongest in California, Texas, Georgia, and Florida. For users in South Asia and Africa, the picture is considerably more complicated. India enacted the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Rules on May 1, 2026, classifying prediction markets as "prohibited online money gaming." Internet service providers have blocked both Polymarket and Kalshi. Local platforms including Probo have shut down. Despite the formal ban, enforcement remains inconsistent: Finance Magnates reported that Kalshi continues accepting Indian users and has stated it "has not been told to shut down and will comply only when directly requested" by regulators. VPN usage is widespread. India ranked among the top crypto adoption nations globally before the ban took effect, and its absence from the regulated prediction market space represents a significant gap between user demand and legal access.

In Africa, the situation varies by country but shares a common thread: informal participation in a space where formal infrastructure is missing. South Africa has the continent's most developed crypto legal framework, having designated crypto assets as financial products under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act in 2022. But as legal analysts Angela Itzikowitz, Altair Richards, Era Gunning, and Arnaaz Camay at ENSafrica have noted, prediction markets expose a gap where crypto regulation, exchange control law, and gambling law all potentially apply simultaneously. "Classification determines which regulator may have jurisdiction, what licences may be required, which conduct standards apply, and whether the product can lawfully be structured or offered in South Africa at all," the ENSafrica banking and finance team wrote. Kenya and Nigeria each face distinct challenges. Kalshi formally restricts Kenyan users. Nigerian users are not explicitly blocked by most platforms, but circulating guides already advise funding World Cup wagers in USDT rather than naira, given that the naira can swing 4 to 6 percent against the dollar over the course of a 39-day tournament.

Sub-Saharan Africa recorded more than $205 billion in on-chain transaction value between July 2024 and June 2025, a 52% year-over-year increase. South Asia logged $2.36 trillion between January and July 2025, representing 80% year-over-year growth. Four Sub-Saharan African countries now appear in the global top 20 crypto adoption index, up from two in 2024, with Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya among those ranked. Those figures confirm that users in both regions are already engaging with permissionless financial infrastructure at scale. What they lack is regulated, locally accessible prediction market products. The mobile money networks already operating across Africa, including M-Pesa and MTN Mobile Money, offer an existing rail for stablecoin-settled products. The regulatory frameworks do not yet exist, but the user base and the technical infrastructure are already in place. As global prediction market volumes approach $25 billion per month, the regulatory pressure to formalise frameworks in these markets is likely to intensify.