Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Low Is "Almost In" After a Brutal Week Across Crypto Markets
Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told markets on June 4, 2026 that "the low is almost in," citing resilient ETF holdings and Strategy's completed retirement of $1.38 billion in convertible notes, which reduces the risk of forced selling from the firm's massive Bitcoin reserve, as signals that the worst of the current selloff may be over.
Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told markets on June 4, 2026 that "the low is almost in," citing resilient ETF holdings and Strategy's completed retirement of $1.38 billion in convertible notes, which reduces the risk of forced selling from the firm's massive Bitcoin reserve, as signals that the worst of the current selloff may be over. The call came as Bitcoin traded near $63,649, down roughly 13% on the week and about 50% below its all-time high of approximately $128,198 set in October 2025.
The Week That Prompted the Call
Six compounding pressures converged to push Bitcoin to some of its lowest levels of the current correction. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded eleven straight days of net outflows, pulling roughly $3.45 billion out of the funds and reducing total ETF assets under management from $104 billion to $94 billion in about ten days. This was the third-worst weekly ETF result since the funds launched in January 2024. The Federal Reserve's June policy statement removed language about progress toward its 2% inflation target, with two voting members signaling that rate cuts could slip into 2027. Institutional money also rotated out of crypto and into megacap IPOs. On-chain, the Mt. Gox estate moved 10,422 BTC (worth roughly $739 million) in a single transaction, reviving fears about creditor sell pressure. Broader geopolitical risk tied to U.S.-Iran tensions added a risk-off layer on top of all of it. Bitcoin briefly cracked below $62,000 intraday on June 4 before settling at $63,649. The resulting liquidations across June 3 and 4 totaled approximately $1.5 billion across all crypto, with Bitcoin accounting for around $896 million of that figure. Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index (RSI, a momentum indicator that signals oversold conditions when it falls below 30) dropped into the low 20s, a level last seen during the 2022 bear market. One market analyst cautioned, however, that "oversold can stay oversold while flows keep bleeding," a reminder that the RSI reading alone does not confirm a price bottom.
What Standard Chartered Is Actually Saying
Kendrick's statement is directional, not a specific price floor. He is not saying Bitcoin has bottomed at a precise level. He is saying the structural signals suggest the institutional deleveraging phase is close to exhausted. Two pieces of evidence anchor his view. First, ETF holders have absorbed losses without mass redemptions. The ETF AUM fell roughly 9.6% while Bitcoin's price dropped 13%, meaning some institutional participants chose to hold through the pain rather than exit. During the same period, XRP ETFs attracted $20.3 million in inflows and Hyperliquid (HYPE) recorded its eleventh consecutive day of inflows, indicating institutional rotation within crypto rather than a wholesale exit from the asset class. Second, and more counterintuitively, Strategy's debt move earlier this week actually reduces one of the market's larger tail risks.
The firm (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed the sale of just 32 BTC for approximately $2.5 million to cover preferred stock dividend obligations. That small disposal was the company's first net Bitcoin sale in nearly four years, and it rattled markets because it broke Strategy's public identity as a permanent accumulator. But simultaneously, Strategy retired $1.38 billion in convertible notes due in 2029. That debt reduction lowers the probability that the firm would ever be forced to liquidate its 843,706 BTC reserve (held at an average cost of roughly $66,384 per coin) to meet obligations. Prediction market Polymarket's probability of Strategy selling BTC by December 2026 fell from 76% to 69.5% after the announcement, though the probability of a forced sale still remains above two-thirds even after the buyback.
Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff argued that Strategy's note buyback depleted roughly 60% of the company's cash reserves, framing the move as weakening rather than strengthening the firm's financial position.
Kendrick's view also represents a significant shift in his own recent tone. In December 2025, Standard Chartered cut its 2026 Bitcoin target from $300,000 to $150,000. Then in February 2026, the bank cut the target again, to $100,000, meaning the bank has revised its 2026 forecast downward by two-thirds across two cuts. The bank's long-term targets for Bitcoin ($500,000 by end-2030) and Ethereum ($40,000 by end-2030) remain unchanged.
What This Means for South Asia and Africa
The stakes of this price call are concentrated in regions where Bitcoin is not primarily a speculative asset. India ranks first globally on the 2026 Crypto Adoption Index, with roughly 119 million users. Bitcoin represents 9.2% of Indian investors' holdings and drives 17.4% of trading activity. Critically, 61.3% of Indian crypto users self-identify as long-term holders, a behavior that mirrors the institutional "resilience" Standard Chartered identified in ETF data.
Nigeria holds the second spot globally, where naira instability has made Bitcoin a functional savings and payments tool rather than a trading vehicle. Ethiopia, Kenya, and Ghana have all entered the global top 20 for the first time, and Sub-Saharan Africa recorded 180% year-over-year stablecoin growth driven by remittance and merchant payment demand. Chainalysis data covering July 2024 through June 2025 shows the region received more than $205 billion in on-chain value, up approximately 52% year over year, a concrete measure of how utility-driven adoption has taken hold across the continent. Pakistan, ranked eighth, added 27 million users following a regulatory reversal that ended a prior government ban on crypto, though PKR depreciation means BTC's dollar-denominated losses are amplified in local currency terms.
For retail holders in these markets, Standard Chartered's bottom call matters less as a trading signal and more as a structural reassurance: the 2026 correction has not triggered the platform collapses that defined 2022, ETF infrastructure is holding, and forced selling risk from Strategy has been reduced. The question for users in Lagos, Karachi, and Nairobi is not whether Bitcoin finds a floor at $60,000 or $55,000. It is whether the institutional architecture built around this cycle remains intact. Standard Chartered's answer, as of June 4, is yes.