The revision reflects how quickly the financial picture at Strategy is shifting, with TD Cowen making several price target adjustments on the stock this year.

The firm now projects a Bitcoin yield of 18.2% for fiscal year 2026, up from a prior estimate of 16.7%, and lifted its 2027 forecast to 9.6% from 5.4%. Bitcoin yield, a non-standard metric Strategy discloses in its earnings materials, measures the percentage growth in Bitcoin holdings per diluted share over time.

TD Cowen also raised its estimate for Strategy's Bitcoin dollar gains in 2026 to $13.9 billion, up from $12.7 billion.

Debt Buyback at a Discount

The debt repurchase that anchors part of TD Cowen's thesis was announced May 14. Strategy entered privately negotiated agreements to retire approximately $1.50 billion in principal of its 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, paying roughly $1.38 billion in cash. That represents about an 8% discount to face value, meaning the company is eliminating future liabilities for less than their stated worth. Strategy disclosed that funding for the repurchases could come from available cash, proceeds from its equity programs, or potentially from selling Bitcoin holdings. That last option represents a nuanced departure from the company's longstanding "never be a net seller" posture, a point analysts and observers have noted.

Holdings and Recent Purchases

Strategy held 843,738 BTC as of May 17, 2026, acquired at a total cost of approximately $63.87 billion, or an average of about $75,700 per coin. The company holds roughly 3.9% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder by a factor of roughly ten over any other public company.

Its most recent disclosed purchase covers the period May 11 to 17, when it bought 24,869 BTC for about $2.01 billion at an average price of $80,985. That purchase was funded primarily through the sale of 19.95 million STRC preferred shares, raising $1.95 billion, along with the sale of 430,344 Class A common shares for $83.7 million.

The shift toward preferred share issuance, through instruments named STRK (Strike) and STRC (Strife), is central to the efficiency argument TD Cowen is making. By raising capital through perpetual preferred stock rather than diluting common equity, Strategy grows its Bitcoin holdings without reducing existing shareholders' per-share BTC exposure. Bitcoin per diluted share now stands at approximately 213,371 satoshis (a satoshi is one one-hundred-millionth of a Bitcoin), up roughly 18% year over year from about 181,030 satoshis in May 2025.

Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman and the public architect of Strategy's Bitcoin treasury model, has driven the company's accumulation approach since its pivot to BTC as a primary treasury asset. Strategy raised approximately $11.7 billion in capital year to date to fund that strategy, and institutional conviction remains evident: BlackRock increased its MSTR position by 3.14 million shares in Q1 2026.

Despite the accumulation story, MSTR stock was trading at approximately $172.65 as of May 17, meaning TD Cowen's $400 target implies more than double the current price. Bitcoin itself was trading at around $80,120 in mid-May, approximately 36% below its all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. Strategy reported a net loss of $12.54 billion in Q1 2026, though this figure reflects unrealized mark-to-market losses under ASC 350 fair-value accounting rules rather than cash losses.

JPMorgan analysts have separately projected Strategy could purchase up to $30 billion in Bitcoin in 2026 based on its current acquisition rate.

Regional Implications

For investors in South Asia, MSTR functions as one of the few US-listed, regulated instruments offering leveraged Bitcoin exposure. India ranks first globally on the 2026 Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index, and Pakistan ranks eighth, yet direct Bitcoin ownership in both markets involves regulatory friction and tax complexity. Accessing MSTR through international brokerage accounts is a workaround available to retail and institutional investors in the region.

The gap between MSTR's stock price and its underlying per-share Bitcoin value, a persistent premium, remains the central risk for any investor considering that route. Investors must also weigh whether the preferred-equity funding model and BTC yield justify that premium, or whether holding BTC directly is a simpler and cheaper alternative.

In Africa, the more direct parallel is Africa Bitcoin Corporation (ABC), listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Originally called Altvest Capital, ABC became the continent's first listed Bitcoin treasury company after raising $210 million for the strategy. As of February 2026 it held 4.5504 BTC, with a long-term target of 21,000 BTC by 2030. Nigeria ranks second globally on the adoption index. South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria have all moved toward formal digital asset licensing frameworks in the past year, reflecting growing regulatory clarity across the continent.

The ABC model demonstrates that the Strategy playbook is structurally replicable in African markets, even if at a fraction of the scale.

What to Watch

TD Cowen's upward revisions are happening while Bitcoin sits well off its peak, which means the investment thesis rests on both a continued rise in BTC price and sustained capital market access for Strategy's ATM equity programs. The company has established a combined $42 billion in capital-raising capacity across its common and preferred stock programs.

One risk that warrants close attention is Strategy's disclosure that it could sell Bitcoin to fund debt repurchases. If acted upon, this would mark a meaningful break from the company's stated philosophy of never being a net seller of Bitcoin. Whether that principle holds as the debt-repurchase program progresses will be closely watched by analysts tracking the firm's capital strategy.

Whether the preferred-first funding model continues to outpace dilution, and whether Bitcoin's price recovers toward and beyond its prior peak, will be the additional metrics that determine whether the $400 target is achievable.