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Research firm Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating and $67 price target on Figure Technology Solutions (Nasdaq: FIGR) following the company's Q1 2026 earnings release, after the blockchain-native lender reported first-quarter results showing loan marketplace volume of $2.9 billion, up 113% from the same period last year. With shares trading near $38.97, Bernstein's target implies roughly 72% upside. The firm frames Figure as the dominant player in tokenized private credit, estimating it controls about 75% of that market.

Q1 Numbers in Brief

Figure's headline metrics showed broad acceleration across its business lines. Net revenue reached $167.0 million for the quarter, up 98% year-over-year and roughly 6% above analyst consensus. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $82.7 million, a 192% increase. Net income was $45.0 million at a 27% margin. Figure Connect, the company's third-party origination marketplace, contributed $1.6 billion of the total loan volume, up 237% year-over-year, and now represents 56% of all originations. The partner network feeding that channel grew to 387 active participants after 80 additions during the quarter. CEO Michael Tannenbaum described the results as delivering "exceptional first-quarter results," pointing to the triple-digit growth and the partner expansion as evidence of a maturing distribution model.

The $2.9 billion loan marketplace figure sits within a broader Ecosystem Volume of $3.7 billion for the quarter, up 136% year-over-year. Ecosystem Volume captures activity across the full platform and is the larger of the two metrics; the distinction matters when assessing the company's total scale. Figure has now surpassed $25 billion in cumulative all-time ecosystem originations, a milestone that contextualizes the pace of recent growth.

April data, released separately, showed monthly volume of $1.338 billion, up 108% year-over-year. That marked the second straight month above the $1 billion threshold, providing early support for the company's Q2 2026 volume guidance of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion.

Bernstein's Thesis

Bernstein, which named FIGR its top 2026 pick in January, sees Figure evolving beyond its roots as a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) originator into what Bernstein describes as a full blockchain credit infrastructure layer. The firm projects Figure will originate $12.8 billion in loan volume for the full year 2026, rising to $16.5 billion in 2027. Net revenue projections reach roughly $945 million by 2027, up from an estimated $511 million in 2025. Those projections represent a revision approximately 21% above Bernstein's prior estimates, a meaningful upgrade in the firm's stated view of Figure's trajectory. The long-run opportunity, per Bernstein, is a $4 trillion annual credit origination market spanning mortgages, auto loans, HELOCs, and small-business lending, all of which could eventually migrate on-chain.

Figure runs on Provenance Blockchain, a public Layer-1 network that, according to the company, is the largest public chain in the real-world asset (RWA) space, with more than $15.3 billion in tokenized assets and over $600 million settled monthly. The company also operates a yield-bearing stablecoin called $YLDS, which grew from roughly $3 million in circulation one year ago to $598 million in Q1 2026. A newly announced product, Figure Forge, will allow whole loans to be split into single-dollar participation units, intended to lower the entry threshold for both retail and institutional investors. Figure's on-chain product portfolio also includes the FGRD Token, a tokenized class of FIGR stock that trades on the company's On-Chain Public Equity Network (OPEN). In February 2026, Figure upsized an OPEN offering to $150 million. Bernstein points to these capital markets products as evidence that Figure's ambitions extend well beyond loan origination into broader financial infrastructure.

Questions from the Short Side

Not everyone is persuaded. Morpheus Research, a short-seller firm with a financial interest in a lower FIGR price, published an investigation arguing that Figure's blockchain branding overstates the technology's actual role. The report pointed to language in Figure's own SEC filings stating that its loan origination system "does not rely on the use of blockchain technology." It also flagged rising delinquency rates on held-for-sale loans, which climbed from 3.91% in 2024 to 5.46% in 2025, a period when comparable metrics at Bank of America declined from 1.92% to 1.78%. Additional concerns include heavy concentration in $YLDS (99% held by Figure and one passive investor at year-end 2025), the rapid migration of shares off the company's own on-chain equity exchange back to Nasdaq (86% of listed shares returned to Nasdaq within two months of the OPEN exchange launch), and $64 million in insider stock sales by Chairman Mike Cagney since the September 2025 IPO with no reported purchases.

Why This Matters Outside the United States

Figure's direct lending operations are tied to the US housing market and its regulatory framework, so the product itself does not travel easily. The structural model, however, is relevant to developers and policymakers in regions where capital market access for smaller lenders remains constrained.

In India, non-bank lenders (NBFCs) face persistent limits on their ability to raise capital efficiently. India ranked in the global top five for crypto adoption in 2026 by transaction volume, according to CoinLaw data, reflecting a substantial base of on-chain activity that could support infrastructure of this kind. A blockchain-native originate-and-distribute model of the kind Figure operates could reduce borrowing costs for those institutions if replicated domestically, though regulatory clarity from the RBI on digital asset collateral would be a prerequisite. In Africa, Brookings Institution research has identified tokenization as a viable tool for connecting local loan assets to global capital pools, which directly addresses the SME financing gap. Kenya has announced plans for a tokenized sovereign debt platform, while Nigeria expanded its list of licensed virtual asset operators from 19 to 25 between 2025 and 2026. Goldfinch Protocol, which specifically serves borrowers in Africa and South Asia, has originated more than $340 million in on-chain emerging-market loans, demonstrating that demand for this infrastructure exists well beyond the US.

The Morpheus Research findings carry a practical lesson for those regional contexts as well. The gap between blockchain marketing and blockchain utility is not a problem unique to Figure. In markets where collateral enforcement and legal recourse remain the binding constraint on credit access, the technology layer alone solves very little.

What Comes Next

Figure will report Q2 2026 results against guidance calling for $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion in consumer loan marketplace volume, which would represent continued triple-digit growth if achieved. Bernstein's projections assume that pace holds through year-end and accelerates in 2027. Whether the company's expanding on-chain product suite, including $YLDS, Democratized Prime (its on-chain lend-borrow marketplace, which recorded $384 million in matched offers and $394 million in borrower demand in April 2026), and Figure Forge, can justify that trajectory will depend in part on whether its blockchain infrastructure performs as represented under scrutiny from investors and regulators alike.