Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse issued a pointed warning on May 5, saying the Senate Banking Committee has roughly two weeks to schedule a formal markup hearing for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act or the bill's prospects for becoming law this year will fall sharply. Garlinghouse, whose company has a direct financial and regulatory stake in the bill's passage, framed the coming days as the most consequential stretch yet for US crypto regulation, speaking as the legislation sits stalled in the Senate after a strong bipartisan House vote last July.

"If it doesn't happen then, I think the likelihood is going to drop precipitously," Garlinghouse said, referring to the need for a markup, a formal committee session where senators amend, debate, and vote on whether to advance a bill to the full Senate floor. Without that step, the bill cannot proceed regardless of how much support it holds.

What the CLARITY Act Would Do

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R.3633) is the first comprehensive federal attempt to resolve a long-running jurisdictional dispute between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over crypto oversight. The bill would create a federal classification system that assigns digital assets to either the SEC or the CFTC based on their characteristics, establish a regulatory framework for decentralised finance protocols, and prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail central bank digital currency. The House passed it 294 to 134 on July 17, 2025.

The Senate has stalled primarily over one provision: whether crypto firms should be permitted to offer yield-bearing stablecoins. Traditional banking groups, including the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute, have argued the provision could reduce traditional lending activity. Five banking industry groups have formally opposed it.

Recent Compromise Draws Mixed Reactions

Garlinghouse described the past week as "a big positive shift," pointing to new compromise language on stablecoin yield released by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly backed the revised text on May 2, writing simply "Mark it up" on social media. Circle's chief strategy officer Dante Disparte and the Blockchain Association also signalled support.

Not everyone is satisfied. Ji Hun Kim, CEO of the Crypto Council for Innovation, flagged that the new language "goes VERY FAR beyond" previous proposals, extending restrictions to all digital asset market participants, not just stablecoin issuers.

Garlinghouse acknowledged the bill is imperfect. "Do I think it's perfect? Hell, no. There's tradeoffs and compromises, but I do think clarity is better than chaos," he said. His support is not disinterested: Ripple settled its own SEC lawsuit in 2024 and has argued publicly that codified law provides protections that agency-level guidance cannot. Garlinghouse expressed concern that a future SEC chair could reverse current agency-level policy. "There will be another Paul Atkins after Paul who we don't know which side of this argument they're going to fall on," he said, referring to current SEC Chair Paul Atkins, whose crypto-friendly stance may not be permanent.

Investment firm Galaxy puts the odds of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 at roughly even odds, or lower. A mid-May markup is possible but has not been formally scheduled as of today.

The November Deadline Beneath the Surface

The urgency behind Garlinghouse's comments is partly electoral. If Republicans lose their Senate majority in the November 2026 midterm elections, the political dynamics around the bill change entirely. In practical terms, the spring legislative window represents the clearest path to passage under the current Congress.

President Trump's family crypto ventures, which Bloomberg has estimated generated approximately $620 million in profit, have complicated bipartisan willingness among senators to move quickly on industry-friendly legislation, according to CoinDesk reporting.

Regional Stakes: Africa and South Asia

For users outside the United States, the CLARITY Act matters most as a regulatory reference point and a signal to institutional partners. Sub-Saharan Africa recorded $205 billion in on-chain transaction value in the 12 months through June 2025, a 52 percent year-on-year increase, according to figures reported by Blockonomi and Ripple.com; readers should note that Ripple has a direct commercial interest in the legislation and its published data should be read accordingly. Nigeria ranks sixth globally in crypto adoption; Ethiopia ranks twelfth.

Ripple has expanded its African footprint through stablecoin-focused partnerships with Yellow Card, VALR, and Chipper Cash, and a custody arrangement with Absa Bank. In April 2026 it announced a new Middle East and Africa headquarters in Dubai. These partnerships centre on its RLUSD stablecoin rather than direct XRP usage, so CLARITY's primary benefit to African corridors would be legitimising the broader institutional infrastructure rather than directly increasing XRP settlement volumes.

South Asian remittance corridors carry comparable weight. Pakistan recorded $22 billion in crypto transactions in 2024, up 17 percent year on year, despite restrictive national policy. The UAE channels an estimated $43 billion annually in remittances, primarily to India and Pakistan. US regulatory clarity would give licensed American entities a cleaner legal basis for using XRP Ledger infrastructure in those corridors. India's 30 percent capital gains tax on crypto remains a larger structural barrier for retail users in that market regardless of what Washington does.

What Comes Next

A Senate Banking Committee markup, if it happens in the next two weeks, would not guarantee passage. The bill would still need to clear the full Senate, reconcile any differences with the House version, and be signed by the president. With the midterms roughly six months away and the calendar tightening, the window for all of that to happen in 2026 is narrow but not yet closed.

XRP was trading at approximately $1.41 at time of writing, ranked fourth by market capitalisation at roughly $86.9 billion. XRP spot ETF products recorded a net outflow in the week ending May 1, snapping a three-week inflow streak; the precise magnitude of that outflow is pending independent verification from primary sources.