U.S. Senate Bans Members from Prediction Market Trading After Soldier's Insider Bet Nets $409,000
The unanimous resolution closes an ethics gap but leaves global platforms largely untouched, raising longer-term compliance questions for users in South Asia and Africa.
The U.S. Senate voted unanimously on Thursday to bar all sitting senators and their staff from trading on prediction markets, responding to a series of insider trading incidents that exposed a gap in existing ethics rules. The resolution, known as S. Res. 708, took effect immediately upon passage and applies to platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where traders bet on the outcomes of political, economic, and geopolitical events.
The measure was introduced on April 24 by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and cleared the chamber without a single dissenting vote, a rare outcome in the current legislative environment. Because it is a Senate resolution rather than a bill, it did not require a presidential signature and carries enforcement only through internal Senate discipline mechanisms. It also does not restrict prediction market access for ordinary users.
"Any Senator who came to DC to cash in, game prediction markets, or treat public office like a side hustle is betraying the oath they swore to their country," Moreno said in a statement.
The Cases That Forced the Issue
Two incidents in the days before the vote accelerated the Senate's timeline. On April 22, Kalshi suspended and fined one Senate candidate and two House candidates after it detected that each had placed bets on their own campaigns using information not available to the public. Kalshi said it had flagged the activity through its own monitoring systems.
The more serious case came on April 23, when the Department of Justice arrested Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier, on charges tied to bets he placed on Polymarket on January 2. Prosecutors allege Van Dyke used classified military intelligence about a planned operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro before placing more than $26,000 in bets on the outcome. He reportedly profited roughly $409,000. Van Dyke faces charges including commodities fraud, wire fraud, theft of nonpublic government information, unlawful use of confidential government information, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. He pleaded not guilty on April 28 and allegedly attempted to have Polymarket delete his account after placing the trades.
A Market That Has Grown Quickly
The scale of the industry gives the incidents broader significance. Combined annual trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket grew from $15.8 billion in 2024 to roughly $63.5 billion in 2025. Through April 2026, Kalshi has recorded approximately $37.5 billion in notional volume, compared with around $29.2 billion for Polymarket. Open interest across the sector reached $1.08 billion in 2025, up sixfold from the prior year. Kalshi, valued at roughly $22 billion as of March 2026, recently posted a single-week volume record of $3.9 billion. Polymarket, valued at approximately $15 billion as of March 2026, remains the dominant decentralised platform in the space.
Companion Bills Target a Wider Circle
The Senate resolution covers only one chamber. Senators Todd Young (R-IN) and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) introduced legislation on March 26, 2026 that would extend the prohibition to all federally elected officials and government employees. Their bill focuses on the use of nonpublic information rather than a blanket trading ban.
Young and Slotkin argued that government officials have access to nonpublic information, including confidential negotiations, vote counts, and regulatory discussions, that could provide unfair trading advantages on prediction markets. In the House, Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE) and Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) introduced the PREDICT Act, which would extend restrictions to officials' immediate family members.
A third bill, the End Prediction Market Corruption Act (S. 4017), was introduced in March 2026 by Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Adam Schiff (D-CA), and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). The five-senator Democratic measure adds further legislative momentum to what has become a broadly bipartisan push to regulate the sector.
What This Means for Global Users
For traders outside the United States, the Senate resolution itself changes little in practice. Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain and settles all trades in USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin. That architecture allows users in more than 160 countries to participate without a traditional bank account, which is particularly relevant in markets like India, Nigeria, and Kenya where access to global financial products is often limited.
India currently hosts more than 50 active Polymarket prediction markets covering elections, Reserve Bank of India rate decisions, GDP figures, India-Pakistan geopolitical events, and cricket tournaments. Indian users typically fund accounts by converting rupees to USDC through domestic exchanges such as CoinDCX or through peer-to-peer platforms.
In African markets, the distinction between the two major platforms matters considerably. Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated exchange and remains difficult to access from most of the continent. Polymarket, by contrast, is reachable by users in Nigeria, Kenya, and elsewhere through its decentralised structure. For those users, USDC settlement also functions as a practical dollarisation tool, allowing participation in global event markets without depending on local currency infrastructure or traditional financial intermediaries.
The practical risk for international users is indirect. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced formal rulemaking for prediction markets in January 2026 and in March issued a staff advisory requiring real-time monitoring and anti-manipulation standards from platforms. The CFTC also sued Wisconsin in April to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction market platforms, its fifth such state-level action this year. If those regulatory efforts result in stricter know-your-customer or anti-money-laundering requirements, users who currently trade pseudonymously through Web3 wallets could face new friction.
Polymarket is already seeking to expand formal access in the United States. The platform settled a CFTC enforcement action in 2022, and in November 2025 the CFTC granted it an Amended Order of Designation enabling a separate U.S.-facing exchange. In April 2026, Polymarket filed for CFTC approval to reopen its main global exchange to American traders as well, a distinct and additional step beyond the partial access already in place. The outcome of that application, combined with the pace of congressional activity, will determine how the regulatory environment in Washington shapes access for users from Mumbai to Nairobi over the next year.
That environment is already shifting beyond U.S. borders. Polymarket has faced active national-level bans in Brazil (April 26, 2026), Portugal (March 17, 2026), Australia, Belgium, France, Poland, Switzerland, and Singapore. Those restrictions are enforced through ISP-level or exchange-level blocking rather than smart-contract shutdowns, meaning the platform's underlying code remains operational but access is practically curtailed for many users. A continued spread of national-level actions could further complicate access in the very markets where Polymarket's decentralised model has found its largest audience.