The nine-day run had brought in a cumulative $2.1 billion. Bitcoin had rallied approximately 21% from April lows near $65,000 to a range of $77,000 to $78,500 over the course of the month, with the inflow streak itself accompanying a more targeted 12% rise from around $68,000. The streak was the longest consecutive positive flow period since October 2025, when a similar institutional buying wave coincided with Bitcoin's all-time high near $126,000. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set to announce its rate decision on April 29, traders moved to reduce exposure, ending that run.

Bitcoin was holding near $77,000 as of Monday. The price briefly touched $78,000 during a weekend short squeeze but has since pulled back into a narrower range.

BlackRock Dominates, Fidelity Bucks the Trend

During the nine-day inflow period, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) captured the majority of new money. On the final reporting day before outflows began, IBIT pulled in $167.49 million out of a total $223.21 million in net inflows across all funds, representing roughly 75% of the day's activity. Fidelity's FBTC was a notable exception, posting a $16.93 million net outflow on that same day.

IBIT now holds 806,178 BTC, compared to 187,561 BTC at Fidelity and 152,547 BTC at Grayscale's GBTC. Total assets across all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at approximately $102 billion, with $58 billion in cumulative net inflows since the products launched in January 2024. Those holdings represent approximately 6.5% of Bitcoin's total market cap, a figure that helps calibrate the scale of institutional penetration in the asset class since launch.

Crypto analyst Patrick Scott framed the dynamic this way: "Bitcoin ETFs are adding a new reflexive element to price, where off-hours dumps translate to outflows on the next trading day."

The FOMC Factor

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on April 29. CME FedWatch data puts the probability of no change at approximately 99.5%. The meeting is also Jerome Powell's final scheduled press conference before his term ends on May 15, 2026. Markets will be parsing his tone closely for forward guidance, with particular attention on the dot plot, the Fed's summary of individual policymakers' projected rate paths. Kevin Warsh, whose Senate confirmation hearing has already concluded, is widely regarded as Powell's likely successor, and any signal Powell sends about the policy outlook will carry additional structural weight given that transitional context.

The stakes for crypto are concrete. Historical data shows Bitcoin dropped within 48 hours of eight of the last nine FOMC meetings, averaging a decline of 5.6%. The only exception was May 2025, when Bitcoin had already fallen about 24% before the meeting took place.

Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis currently sits near $76,800, making that level a meaningful support zone. A more significant pullback would likely find the next floor near the 200-day moving average, which falls in the $73,000 to $74,000 range.

March 2026 CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year, the highest reading since May 2024. That figure keeps pressure on the Fed to maintain its cautious posture, with near-term rate cuts appearing largely priced out by current market positioning. Adding to the week's complexity, U.S.-Iran tensions and reports of a potential ceasefire have sustained a geopolitical risk premium in global markets throughout April, contributing to Bitcoin's recovery from its monthly lows and remaining an active variable heading into the FOMC decision.

On-Chain Picture: Strong Structure, One Clear Warning

Several on-chain metrics point to an underlying market that is structurally more resilient than the current price level suggests. Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to 2.21 million BTC, a level not seen in seven to nine years. SpotedCrypto noted that reserves have not been this low since December 2017, adding that "institutional capital has decoupled from retail sentiment."

Wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more grew from 2,082 to 2,140 since December 2025, consistent with sustained institutional accumulation. Over the most recent 30-day period, whales added an estimated 270,000 BTC to their holdings, giving concrete scale to what the wallet-count growth implies. The MVRV Z-Score, a metric that compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, sits at 1.2, a reading that has historically indicated undervaluation. The network hash rate is running at 520 exahashes per second, up 3% over 30 days.

The one flashing warning: short-term holders are realizing profits at approximately $4.4 million per hour. That rate is nearly three times the $1.5 million per hour threshold that has preceded every local price top so far in 2026.

Analysis: What This Means Outside the United States

The reversal matters beyond U.S. markets. India ranks first in the 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index, Nigeria ranks second, Pakistan eighth, and Ethiopia enters the top ten for the first time at number ten. Kenya also makes a notable debut, entering the index at number thirteen.

None of these countries currently offer domestic Bitcoin ETF products, meaning retail holders across South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are exposed to the same ETF-driven price swings without institutional-grade hedging tools.

In Nigeria, where roughly 59% of crypto holders use USDT (Tether's stablecoin) as a primary savings vehicle, a hawkish signal from Powell could put added pressure on the naira and, by extension, accelerate stablecoin adoption as a dollar hedge. That connection reflects analytical inference consistent with observed regional trends rather than a directly sourced projection.

Sub-Saharan Africa processed $205 billion in on-chain value between 2024 and 2025, with stablecoin usage up 180% year-over-year.

A BlackRock executive noted in February 2026 that even a 1% crypto allocation across standard portfolios in Asia could generate close to $2 trillion in new inflows, a figure that underscores how much institutional capacity remains untapped in the region.

What Comes Next

The Bitcoin Conference 2026 runs through April 29, adding another layer of market noise to an already dense week of catalysts. Beyond the rate decision itself, markets will be watching whether the dot plot signals any shift in the projected rate path and what tone Powell strikes in what may be his final press conference as chair. Kevin Warsh's expected succession lends Powell's language additional structural significance, since any rhetorical pivot will be read partly as a preview of the incoming regime. The U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation remains a parallel variable capable of moving risk assets independently of whatever the Fed delivers.

If FOMC language proves more hawkish than expected, traders will be watching whether Bitcoin holds above its short-term holder cost basis near $76,800. A break below that level could accelerate selling from recent buyers.

Longer-term holders, particularly those who accumulated during 2025's drawdown, carry a lower cost basis and are better positioned to weather short-term Fed-driven volatility. That structural advantage, however, runs alongside the short-term holder profit-realization rate flagged in the on-chain data, which is running at nearly three times the threshold that has preceded every local top this year. Both signals are live, and the sessions immediately following the April 29 announcement will test which one prevails.

The nine-day streak showed institutional demand can move price. Whether that demand returns after the April 29 decision will set the tone for May.