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SEC Marks One Year Under Atkins With Sweeping Crypto Rule Proposals and New Scrutiny on Prediction Markets

Paul Atkins has spent his first year as SEC chair dismantling the enforcement-first approach of his predecessor and replacing it with formal rulemaking. The shift has global implications, from Indian founders eyeing US capital markets to African exchanges relying on dollar-backed stablecoins.

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission completed its first year under Chair Paul Atkins this month, a period defined by a near-total reversal in how the agency treats digital assets. Atkins was confirmed by the Senate in a 52-44 vote, a margin that reflected the contested, partisan nature of his appointment. Where his predecessor Gary Gensler filed more than 100 crypto-related cases against digital asset firms without issuing formal rules, Atkins has moved on multiple fronts to codify a legal framework from scratch. The most significant output so far is "Reg Crypto," a proposed fundraising regime unveiled on April 6, 2026, which is now under White House review.

That output did not emerge in isolation. To drive the policy pivot, Atkins launched Project Crypto, a Commission-wide initiative, and established the SEC Crypto Task Force as its operational engine. He has organised the broader agenda under what he calls the ACT Framework, three pillars of Advance, Clarify, and Transform, giving observers a vocabulary for assessing whether his first year has delivered on his stated promises.

Reg Crypto contains two core exemptions. A startup pathway would allow projects to raise up to $5 million over a four-year period using simplified, principles-based disclosures (broad guidelines rather than prescriptive itemised requirements) rather than full securities registration. A second tier permits raises of up to $75 million within any 12-month window, subject to structured disclosures. Both tiers require issuers to publish information through a dedicated Transparency Portal covering token distribution, lock-up periods, and audit findings. The proposal is the first attempt by any U.S. regulator to build a comprehensive legal pathway for token-based fundraising.

That proposal sits on top of earlier groundwork. On March 17, 2026, the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jointly issued an interpretive release sorting crypto assets into five categories: Digital Commodities (covering bitcoin, ether, solana, XRP, and cardano), Digital Collectibles (NFTs and memecoins), Digital Tools (membership and credential tokens), Stablecoins, and Digital Securities. Four of the five categories fall outside securities law entirely. The two agencies had signed a formal coordination agreement, a Memorandum of Understanding, on March 11 to align on product definitions, dual registration, clearing and margin frameworks, crypto assets, regulatory reporting, and cross-market oversight going forward.

Atkins has been direct about the cost of the previous approach. Speaking in March 2026, he argued that "regulation through sanctions" had pushed "an entire generation of digital asset innovation offshore," with projects choosing Singapore, the UAE, the Cayman Islands, and Switzerland over the United States to avoid open-ended legal exposure. He has stated publicly his intention to ensure "a more solid foundation will be in place by the end of 2026."

Prediction markets are a complicating subplot. The current scale of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket traces directly to the 2024 U.S. election cycle, when Polymarket alone processed tens of billions of dollars in volume and drew unprecedented mainstream attention, setting the stage for the federal and state regulatory scrutiny that followed. Both platforms now operate as federally designated contract markets, a status the CFTC granted in November 2025, and collectively process billions of dollars in monthly trading volume. The CFTC under Chair Michael Selig withdrew a proposed ban on political and sports event contracts in February 2026, with Selig stating the agency's goal is to "support the responsible development of event contract markets." But the jurisdictional picture remains messy. The CFTC has filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to assert exclusive federal authority over these platforms. New York Attorney General Letitia James has warned consumers directly against using them. Jay Clayton, serving as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, issued a blunt reminder that "the prediction-market label doesn't shield illegal conduct from criminal liability."

For markets outside the United States, the SEC's pivot carries real weight. Sub-Saharan Africa recorded roughly $205 billion in on-chain transaction volume between July 2024 and June 2025, a 52 percent increase year-over-year. Nigeria ranked sixth globally in crypto adoption in 2025; Ethiopia ranked twelfth. Many African exchanges depend on USDC and USDT rails built on U.S.-headquartered protocols. The SEC's explicit classification of dollar-backed stablecoins as non-securities removes a compliance ambiguity that had caused some African platforms to restrict stablecoin products. South Africa's Financial Sector Conduct Authority is moving toward formalising its own crypto asset framework, and the SEC's five-category taxonomy gives regional regulators a working model to reference. Kenya enacted its Virtual Asset Service Providers Bill in October 2025, and Mauritius passed its VAITOS Act, both reflecting continental regulatory maturation and potential convergence with U.S. definitions.

In South Asia, the picture is more mixed. Indian founders incorporating in Delaware or Wyoming to access U.S. capital markets previously faced uncertain securities exposure when issuing tokens. Reg Crypto's startup exemption changes that calculus if the proposal is enacted. Reg Crypto's Transparency Portal requirement also aligns with India's own Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) disclosure norms, a point of convergence that could ease compliance for issuers operating across both markets. However, India's own framework remains unresolved. The country currently has 50 FIU-registered domestic crypto providers, yet its financial intelligence unit has put 25 offshore crypto platforms on formal notice, signalling that U.S. rule liberalisation does not automatically translate into easier Indian market access. The country's 30 percent flat tax on crypto gains, paired with a 1% tax deducted at source (TDS) on each transaction, continues to push founders toward Dubai and Singapore. Pakistan remains more restrictive still, with the State Bank maintaining its instruction to commercial banks not to process crypto transactions. Across the broader region, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal remain restrictive or largely absent from formal crypto frameworks, though all three face growing pressure to adopt reference models under FATF and IMF guidance.

The Reg Crypto proposal now awaits White House review, specifically the standard process conducted by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), which is required for all significant federal rulemakings before a formal public comment period can open. That step explains why a proposal already publicly announced is not yet in effect. Even under an optimistic timeline, final rules are unlikely before late 2026. What is already locked in is a legal taxonomy that fundamentally redraws the line between what the SEC considers its jurisdiction and what it does not. For founders, fund managers, and platform operators watching from Lagos, Mumbai, or Nairobi, that line now looks considerably clearer than it did twelve months ago.