TD Cowen Backs Four Crypto Treasury Stocks, Cuts Strategy Target Amid Lower BTC Outlook
Wall Street analyst Lance Vitanza initiated buy-rated coverage on four digital asset treasury companies on April 9, 2026, while simultaneously trimming his price target on Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker: MSTR), the world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder, from $440 to $350 on revised Bitcoin price assumptions.
The new coverage spans SharpLink Gaming (SBET), Strive (ASST), Nakamoto (NAKA), and the UK-listed Smarter Web Company. TD Cowen's targets imply significant upside from current trading levels. Targets for three of the four companies are contingent on Bitcoin reaching approximately $140,000 and Ether reaching roughly $3,650 by late 2026. TD Cowen's target for the Smarter Web Company was not disclosed in available sources.
What TD Cowen Is Saying
Vitanza's core argument is straightforward: treasury companies that actively grow their coin holdings per share and, where applicable, generate yield from those assets can outperform spot crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs, which are funds that track asset prices directly) during a price recovery.
TD Cowen set a $16 target on SharpLink against a recent close near $6.42, a $26 target on Strive against a close near $9.64, and a $1 target on Nakamoto against a current price of approximately $0.21. TD Cowen's target for the Smarter Web Company was not disclosed in available sources.
On SharpLink, Vitanza noted that staking income, the revenue generated by locking up Ether to help validate the Ethereum network, "should more than cover operating costs" even during periods of weak Ether prices. SharpLink, led by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin and former BlackRock digital assets head Joseph Chalom, holds approximately 740,760 ETH worth around $3.28 billion. The company reported $15.3 million in staking revenue in Q1 2026, up 50% from the prior quarter, though it posted a full-year loss of $734 million driven largely by ETH price depreciation.
For Strategy, the reduced target reflects lower expected Bitcoin price multiples rather than any change in view on the company's structure. Strategy holds 766,970 BTC at an average purchase price of roughly $66,384 per coin, a total cost basis of about $33.1 billion. The company disclosed a $14.46 billion unrealized loss on its holdings in Q1 2026 and has continued buying, adding 4,871 BTC in April alone through preferred stock issuances rather than operating cash.
The Smaller Players: Strive, Nakamoto, and Smarter Web
Strive, which describes itself as the first publicly traded asset management Bitcoin treasury company, holds approximately 13,311 BTC and manages more than $2 billion in assets across 13 ETFs and related vehicles. Vitanza called Strive's January 2026 acquisition of Semler Scientific a "watershed event" that supports a broader consolidation thesis in the treasury space. Strive reported a Bitcoin Yield of 22.2% (a proprietary per-share BTC accretion metric used by treasury-model companies to measure growth in Bitcoin holdings relative to shares outstanding) and a $114.3 million BTC gain in Q4 2025.
Nakamoto, founded by David Bailey, presents the starkest risk profile of the four. The company holds 5,398 BTC and completed a $107.3 million all-stock acquisition of BTC Inc. (parent of Bitcoin Magazine and The Bitcoin Conference) and UTXO Management in February 2026. Its stock has fallen roughly 99% from its May 2025 peak, and the company is currently seeking shareholder approval for a reverse stock split in a ratio of 1-for-20 to 1-for-50 in order to regain Nasdaq compliance with the exchange's $1 minimum bid requirement. A reverse stock split reduces the number of shares outstanding and raises the per-share price proportionally, but does not change the underlying value of the company. TD Cowen's $1 target would represent roughly a fivefold increase from the approximately $0.21 current share price.
The Smarter Web Company, listed on the London Stock Exchange, holds approximately 2,674 BTC and is led by CEO Andrew Webley, who has publicly positioned the company as a pioneer in the UK-listed Bitcoin treasury space. Bitcoin advocate Jesse Myers serves in an advisory role. The company's structure and listing demonstrate that the treasury model is not limited to North American exchanges and offers a reference point for regulators and founders considering similar vehicles in other markets.
Regional Context: Africa and India Are Watching
India now ranks first in the 2026 Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index, with approximately 119 million active crypto users and $2.36 trillion in tracked transaction volume over the prior 12 months. Despite a 30% flat tax on crypto gains, institutional interest is building. Jetking Infotrain recently became the first Indian-listed public company to hold Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, though its holdings remain modest at 12 BTC. India has yet to develop a comprehensive regulatory framework analogous to the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation (MiCA), and that legal ambiguity may slow the formation of homegrown treasury vehicles even as overseas options multiply. As treasury-model stocks mature globally, Indian capital market regulators face a choice: enable homegrown equivalents or watch institutional capital flow toward foreign-listed treasury vehicles accessible only through international brokerage accounts.
In Africa, the Smarter Web Company's London Stock Exchange listing offers a reference model for what a regional equivalent might look like. South Africa's own Africa Bitcoin Corporation, the rebranded Altvest Capital listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, is currently attempting to raise $210 million to build a Bitcoin treasury while providing Bitcoin-backed financial services to underserved communities. Its chairman, Stafford Masie, has framed the effort in direct terms: "In Africa, when financial services don't work, people die. We live that reality. So when we approach Bitcoin, we approach Bitcoin from a real, human necessity, life-saving perspective." Masie has also offered a pointed diagnosis of the underlying problem: "The money is broken, not the society. Your groceries are not getting more expensive; the money is getting weaker."
Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia now all appear in the top 20 of the 2026 Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index, underscoring the depth of grassroots digital asset activity across the continent and signalling that sub-Saharan Africa is not a peripheral market in this story.
Sub-Saharan Africa recorded 180% year-over-year growth in stablecoin volumes in 2025, driven by remittances and merchant payments, according to Crypto News Navigator. The figure points to digital asset infrastructure deepening across the region even where institutional models remain early-stage.
What Comes Next
The broader market now holds more than 200 publicly listed companies sitting on approximately $115 billion in digital assets, per industry estimates cited by CoinDesk Opinion in April 2026.
According to a recent CoinDesk analysis, analysts and investors are increasingly focused on yield generation and coin-per-share growth rather than raw holdings counts, pressuring passive accumulators to justify their structures.
If Bitcoin approaches TD Cowen's $140,000 price assumption later this year, the gap between buy targets and current trading prices could attract significant institutional inflows. If it does not, companies like Nakamoto, which are already fighting to stay listed, face compounding pressure regardless of analyst optimism.