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Thailand-based Merkle Capital is forecasting a Bitcoin price recovery in the second quarter of 2026, citing a tentative US-Iran ceasefire, a softening US dollar, and early signs that investors are rotating out of safe-haven assets and back into risk. The call comes as Bitcoin traded near $73,000 on April 8, reflecting the intraday high driven by the ceasefire announcement, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,000.

Woramet Chansen, an investment adviser at Merkle Capital, described the coming months as a turning point. "The second quarter will be a critical period," he said, noting that any recovery depends on "geopolitical stability, energy prices and the pace of global liquidity." Merkle Capital holds a unique position in the Thai financial system: it was the first digital asset fund manager to receive a license from Thailand's Securities and Exchange Commission, lending its market calls institutional weight within the region. The firm has a track record of directional calls worth noting. It previously forecast Bitcoin reaching $120,000 in 2025, contingent on Federal Reserve rate cuts, a projection that broadly materialised when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025.

The Bull Case and Its Limits

The optimistic scenario rests on a specific chain of events. Oil briefly breached $100 per barrel at the peak of the US-Iran conflict before easing following the ceasefire announcement, meaning the $100 threshold is not hypothetical but has already been tested. If the ceasefire holds, prices should remain below that level. The analytical case connecting these factors runs as follows: lower oil supports softer inflation expectations, which in turn could pressure the US Federal Reserve toward rate cuts. Rate cuts typically weaken the dollar and push investors toward higher-risk assets like Bitcoin. This causal chain represents an analytical interpretation of available data rather than a single consolidated argument from Merkle Capital.

On-chain data adds some structural support to this view. Exchange reserves for Bitcoin have fallen to 2.21 million BTC, their lowest level in nine years, representing approximately 5.9% of total supply. Some 2,140 whale addresses (wallets holding large amounts of Bitcoin) accumulated 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the largest monthly accumulation since 2013. Long-term holders now control more than 78% of circulating supply. Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant has observed that "when exchange whale ratios decline while net outflows accelerate, it indicates that large holders are shifting from distribution to accumulation," a dynamic consistent with the current on-chain picture.

The MVRV ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin's market value to the realized value of all coins on-chain, currently sits at 1.8. That is well below the 3.5 to 4.0 range historically associated with market tops, suggesting the asset is not overvalued relative to its cost basis. Analysts cited in the Bangkok Post have identified $70,000 as a key accumulation zone and $45,000 as the lower bound of meaningful structural support.

A Competing View from Within the Firm

Not everyone at Merkle is fully convinced the rebound is underway. Thanalop Preedamanoch, the firm's head of investment, issued a separate warning in March 2026 that the recent price bounce may be a bull trap, a term for a temporary rally that lures buyers before the price falls again. "The issue is the absence of a strong catalyst," he said, pointing out that recent price gains were driven by short liquidations in thin markets rather than new capital entering the asset class. He added that historically, "major crypto bull cycles have been supported by clear drivers, such as regulatory progress," which he argued remains absent. Bitcoin ETF inflows of $471 million during April's tariff-driven selloff are notable, but institutional allocation still represents only 0.66% of global assets under management, leaving the structural demand case, by this assessment, still in its early stages.

The broader market sentiment reflects this uncertainty. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered 18 out of 100 as of early April, up from a reading of 9 recorded on April 3, and has remained below 25 for 46 consecutive days. That is the longest sustained stretch of extreme fear since the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022.

Regional Stakes

For Southeast Asia, Merkle's forecast carries practical weight. Thailand now counts more than 7 million domestic digital asset holders, roughly one in ten adults. The Thai SEC has outlined plans for crypto ETFs and futures products, approved USDC and USDT for regulated transactions in March 2025, and a five-year capital gains tax exemption on crypto sold through licensed exchanges remains in effect through December 2029. According to Verse Press research desk analysis, a sustained Bitcoin recovery above $75,000 to $80,000 would likely accelerate uptake of those incoming products.

In India, where more than 100 million people hold crypto assets, the picture is shaped by a 30% flat tax on gains that has pushed retail participants toward longer holding periods. From April 1, 2026, Indian exchanges are required to share transaction data directly with the income tax authority, a compliance step that brings exchange-level reporting into alignment with formal regulatory requirements. India's crypto sector is also awaiting a formal policy framework following Supreme Court criticism of the government in 2025 over the absence of clear regulation. Merkle has identified that regulatory clarity as a necessary catalyst for any sustained bull run, making the outcome of India's pending framework directly relevant to the article's central thesis. Any structural recovery in Bitcoin would likely draw significant inflows from Indian retail holders who accumulated below current price levels.

Across Africa, the crypto market grew 52% year-on-year to more than $205 billion in on-chain value, with stablecoin use surging more than 180% as a savings and remittance tool in high-inflation economies. For users in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya, among the continent's leading markets by volume, Bitcoin's price direction matters as a signal of ecosystem stability, though the region's engagement extends well beyond price speculation. African developers remain active in Layer 2 infrastructure including the Lightning Network and Stacks, and users in high-inflation markets are increasingly rotating from stablecoins into Bitcoin as purchasing power erodes.

What Comes Next

The immediate test is whether the US-Iran ceasefire holds and oil prices remain contained. Merkle Capital's Woramet Chansen cautioned that any renewed escalation pushing crude above $100 per barrel would likely trigger broad risk-asset selling. With derivatives markets still showing low open interest, meaning there is limited liquidity to absorb large orders, volatility in either direction remains elevated. Verse Press research desk analysis of Merkle's data suggests institutional desks consider staged entries rather than lump-sum positions until Q2 macro conditions clarify. By that same analysis, the next Federal Reserve rate decision and any formal diplomatic announcement on the Iran situation are the two events most likely to define which scenario plays out.