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Long-term Bitcoin holders significantly reduced their selling activity through late February and early March 2026, according to a mid-month report from asset manager VanEck. The report describes the trend as "a potentially constructive signal" for markets, even as Bitcoin trades near $70,417, roughly $13,800 below its year-ago price and well off the November 2025 high of nearly $90,000. Separately, investors filed a class-action lawsuit on March 19 against Gemini Space Station Inc. and co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, alleging the company misled shareholders during its September 2025 IPO.

Selling Pressure Drops Sharply

VanEck's Bitcoin ChainCheck series, published monthly by the firm's digital assets research team and led by digital assets research head Matthew Sigel, tracks supply-side behavior among long-term holders (wallets that have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days). This cohort is closely watched because sustained selling from these addresses has historically coincided with market tops, while a slowdown in their distribution often precedes price stabilization or recovery.

The numbers from the latest report are notable. The net position change among long-term holders shrank from negative 243,737 BTC on February 5 to negative 31,967 BTC by March 1, an 87% reduction in net selling over roughly 24 days. Transfer volume from this cohort declined across every age bracket, not just among newer long-term holders, which the report describes as a broad-based signal.

Other on-chain metrics showed softer conditions overall. Total transfer volume fell 31% month over month, daily transaction fees dropped 27%, active addresses declined 5%, and average fees were down 40% over the past 30 days. VanEck noted that the combined metrics reflect a broad slowdown in on-chain activity.

Miners Holding Steady Despite Revenue Drop

Miner revenue fell 11% month over month and mining stocks declined roughly 7% over the same period. Despite that pressure, VanEck noted that miners are "attempting to preserve their remaining reserves rather than liquidate positions aggressively." Outflows from miners to exchanges rose only 1% in nominal Bitcoin terms, and aggregate miner balances sit near 684,000 BTC. That figure is down 0.5% year over year despite approximately 164,000 new BTC being mined during the period, meaning miners effectively sold nearly all new issuance to cover operating costs. The hash rate has contracted about 14% over the past 90 days. VanEck observed that past periods of hash rate contraction "have often led to improved returns."

Several major miners are now pivoting toward AI infrastructure. Bitdeer liquidated its entire Bitcoin treasury, while Core Scientific and Marathon Digital have announced asset divestitures to fund business transitions. That structural shift may reduce hash rate competition globally, which could benefit lower-cost operators including miners in Ethiopia, where cheap hydroelectric power has attracted Bitcoin mining activity.

Gemini Investors Sue Over IPO Pivot

The Gemini lawsuit, filed in the Southern District of New York (Case No. 26-cv-02261), names Gemini Space Station Inc., Tyler Winklevoss, and Cameron Winklevoss as defendants. Lead plaintiff Marc Methvin represents investors who purchased GEMI shares at the IPO on September 12, 2025, or through February 17, 2026. The offering priced at $28 per share, opened at $37.01, and raised $425 million in a deal that was 20 times oversubscribed. As of March 20, GEMI shares trade at approximately $6.01, a decline of more than 80% that has erased roughly $2.6 billion in market capitalization.

The complaint alleges that Gemini's February 2026 announcement of "Gemini 2.0," which included a pivot to prediction markets, a roughly 25% workforce reduction (about 200 jobs), and a full exit from the EU, UK, and Australia, represented an "abrupt corporate pivot to a prediction-market-centric business model" that was not disclosed to investors during the IPO process. That pivot was structurally enabled by a CFTC Designated Contract Market license granted in December 2025 to Gemini Titan LLC, giving the company the regulatory standing to operate prediction markets in the United States. Plaintiffs characterize the original offering as selling "a false story."

Three senior executives departed on February 17: COO Marshall Beard, CFO Dan Chen, and CLO Tyler Meade. The company also reported full-year 2025 figures showing a net loss of $582.8 million on revenue of $179.6 million. Citi subsequently downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell with a price target of $5.50.

The lawsuit arrives against a backdrop of prior regulatory actions involving Gemini. In January 2026, the SEC dismissed its case against the company's Gemini Earn program, with approximately 340,000 affected users receiving full recovery of their funds. Earlier actions include a $37 million settlement with the New York Department of Financial Services and a $5 million CFTC penalty levied in January 2025. That regulatory history informs the governance concerns the new lawsuit raises.

A spokesperson for Gemini did not respond to a request for comment.

What This Means Outside the United States

For markets in South Asia, the VanEck data carries direct relevance. India ranks first globally in crypto adoption by Chainalysis metrics, and Pakistan ranks third. The region generated approximately $300 billion in on-chain transaction volume from January to July 2025, with 80% year-over-year growth. A sustained easing of long-term holder selling reduces one source of downward price pressure, though VanEck is careful to describe the signal as "potentially constructive" rather than a recovery call. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi still price Bitcoin below $55,000 by December 2026, a reminder that these are market-implied probabilities reflecting macroeconomic concerns, not a VanEck forecast.

For African markets, particularly Nigeria (ranked sixth globally by Chainalysis), Kenya, and Ethiopia, the Gemini story carries more regulatory than operational weight. Gemini was not a major platform in Sub-Saharan Africa, where Binance, Yellow Card, Bitget, and local P2P networks lead. But the IPO collapse, sudden strategic reversal, and executive departures illustrate the governance risks that regulators in Nigeria and Kenya are already factoring into their developing crypto licensing frameworks. Nigeria's Securities and Exchange Commission and the Kenya Capital Markets Authority are among the bodies actively developing such frameworks. Gemini's arrangement with eToro to absorb UK, EEA, and Australia user accounts ahead of its April 6 closure also sets a visible precedent for how platform exits can be structured.

Looking Ahead

Markets will be watching whether the slowdown in long-term holder selling holds through the end of March or proves temporary. If Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 (currently 0.55) remains elevated, macroeconomic conditions will continue to overshadow any supply-side improvements. On the Gemini front, the case is in its early stages and the defendants had not filed a formal response as of publication.