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Circle's USDC has surpassed Tether's USDT in so-called adjusted transaction volume so far in 2026, marking the first time the younger stablecoin has led on this measure in seven years. According to a research note published March 13 by Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins, USDC recorded $2.2 trillion in adjusted volume year-to-date compared to $1.3 trillion for USDT. The finding prompted Mizuho to raise its price target for Circle's stock (NYSE: CRCL) from $100 to $120, while maintaining a neutral rating on the stock.

The distinction between adjusted and raw volume is important. Mizuho's methodology filters out wallet addresses linked to centralized exchanges, decentralized exchanges, and any account that transacts more than 1,000 times or moves more than $10 million within a 30-day window. What remains is transfer activity more likely to reflect genuine person-to-person or business-to-business usage rather than automated trading or wash activity. By that measure, USDC now accounts for roughly 64 percent of real-world stablecoin transfers.

USDT still holds a substantial lead in raw market capitalization, at $143 billion against USDC's $78 billion. Total stablecoin market cap sits at approximately $315 billion, with USDT and USDC together representing about 90 percent of that figure. USDT's market cap has actually edged down from $186.8 billion at the start of 2026 to $183.6 billion, while USDC has grown 72 percent year-over-year. Mizuho now projects USDC's market cap could reach $139 billion by 2027.

Two specific use cases are credited with driving USDC's adjusted volume gains. The prediction market platform Polymarket shifted to native USDC settlement after formalizing a partnership with Circle in early 2026. Separately, AI agents have emerged as an unexpected source of high-frequency USDC activity. Over a nine-month period ending in early 2026, AI agents processed 140 million payments totaling $43 million, with 98.6 percent settled in USDC and an average transaction value of just $0.31. Circle launched a Nanopayments product on testnet on March 3, enabling transfers as small as $0.000001 with no gas fees, aimed at this machine-to-machine payment segment. Stripe is also building USDC into its infrastructure for what it calls the "Machine Economy," adding further institutional weight to the agentic commerce trend. Mizuho cited both developments directly: "USDC activity trends and use cases like Polymarket or agentic commerce expectations" were listed as justification for the price target increase. Circle shares rose roughly one percent to $115.40 on the day, leaving the stock up about 95 percent from its February 2026 lows.

Regulatory context is central to the USDC story. The GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, 2025, established the first federal framework for stablecoins in the United States. It requires one-to-one reserve backing with high-quality liquid assets, monthly reserve attestations by Big Four auditors, full compliance with anti-money laundering rules, know-your-customer requirements, and a prohibition on paying interest to token holders. USDC meets those requirements. USDT does not currently comply, though Tether has a transition window running to approximately November 2026. Tether has publicly stated its expectation that "the US will apply reciprocity to Tether International," citing the GENIUS Act's reciprocity clause for foreign-issued stablecoins as the basis of its compliance path. Tether has separately launched USAT, a US-based stablecoin operated through Anchorage Digital Bank, to serve regulated institutional markets in the interim. Mizuho's note argued that the long-term winner among stablecoins will likely be determined by real economic usage rather than market capitalization alone, a view the analysts grounded in the adjusted transfer volume data at the center of the report.

For users across Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, the picture on the ground remains different. USDT is overwhelmingly dominant in both regions. Sub-Saharan Africa leads the world in stablecoin adoption, with 9.3 percent of residents holding or transacting with stablecoins according to TRM Labs. Nigeria alone has an estimated 25.9 million stablecoin users, ranking first globally. Africa's total crypto flows reached $205 billion in the 12 months to mid-2025, a 52 percent year-over-year increase, with stablecoins making up 43 percent of all transaction volume. In South Asia, crypto volume grew 80 percent year-over-year through mid-2025. India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh form a significant remittance corridor within the region; separately, the Chainalysis 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index places India, the United States, and Pakistan among the top-ranked countries for overall adoption. Globally, USDT holds 5.4 times as many users as USDC, with the gap most pronounced in West Africa. Research from Cornell University notes that roughly 70 percent of African countries face foreign currency shortages, making dollar-denominated stablecoins a practical necessity rather than a speculative tool.

The GENIUS Act's full compliance deadline creates a meaningful medium-term signal for businesses and developers in these markets. Companies in Lagos, Karachi, or Dhaka that need to connect with US-regulated financial rails or institutional counterparties will face growing pressure to integrate USDC as compliance requirements harden through 2026. Infrastructure decisions being made now around wallet compatibility, settlement layer, and compliance posture will carry weight over the next two years. Tether's USAT offering represents a direct response to that pressure, but it remains an untested product in a separate regulatory lane from the established USDT networks that informal and retail markets in both regions rely on today.