The chief executive of Binance TH by Gulf Binance, one of Thailand's leading regulated crypto exchanges, said this week that Bitcoin is likely to begin recovering by October 2026, even as ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to rattle short-term sentiment. CEO Nirun Fuwattananukul made the projection in comments published by the Bangkok Post on March 6, pointing to historical patterns and on-chain accumulation signals as the basis for his outlook.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $70,000, having recovered partially from a low of roughly $59,930 reached in early February. The token fell more than 50 percent from its all-time high of over $120,000 set in October 2025. That correction has unfolded in stages. In late February, a U.S. strike on Iran triggered an initial selloff that pushed Bitcoin down roughly 4 percent to approximately $63,000. Then on March 3, when Israel struck Tehran and Beirut and Iranian drones hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, Bitcoin dropped again from $70,000 to $66,500, and liquidations across crypto derivatives markets hit $392 million in 24 hours, split roughly evenly between long and short positions. The selloff extended well beyond crypto: gold fell from $5,410 to $5,260 on the same day, and the U.S. Dollar Index climbed to a near two-month high, as investors rotated toward safety across asset classes broadly.

Nirun framed the geopolitical risk as manageable. "War has created significant uncertainty, but there is a belief the conflict will not be prolonged," he said. His firm estimates that crypto markets have historically stabilized within roughly 60 days of major geopolitical escalations, a pattern they expect to hold again. He identified $52,000 to $55,000 as a key accumulation zone for long-term investors if Bitcoin sees further downside, while also flagging a more acute near-term risk scenario in which Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 if selling pressure intensifies. Analysts at Stifel have separately modeled a bear-case floor of approximately $38,000 based on trendline analysis, representing the outer bound of the current risk picture. Nirun noted $80,000 as the immediate resistance level to watch on any near-term rebound. That $80,000 figure corresponds roughly with Bitcoin's 12-week moving average.

Independent on-chain data supports the cautious but constructive read. Bitcoin's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI, a measure of momentum where readings below 30 signal oversold conditions) has dropped to approximately 27, marking only the third time in Bitcoin's history the weekly RSI has fallen below 30. The previous two instances occurred in January 2015 near $200 and December 2018 near $3,500. Both of those periods later proved to be significant bear market lows, though analysts caution that past RSI episodes do not guarantee future price outcomes and the pattern requires corroboration from other indicators. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has also registered readings between 14 and 18, a range classified as "Extreme Fear" and historically watched as a contrarian accumulation signal by longer-term investors. Separately, whale wallets (large holders, typically institutions or high-net-worth individuals) have accumulated a net 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the largest such accumulation in over 13 years. Bitcoin reserves held on exchanges have also fallen to 2.31 million BTC, a six-year low that reduces the immediate supply available for selling. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which give institutional investors exposure without holding the asset directly, now hold a combined $92.37 billion in assets under management and have recently recorded inflows exceeding $1 billion per session, a figure that points to active institutional demand rather than passive holdings alone.

Cycle analysts working independently of Binance TH arrive at broadly similar timing, though with meaningful variation across models. Research from CryptoQuant, which maps prior Bitcoin halving cycles (Bitcoin halves its new supply roughly every four years, historically preceding price peaks and troughs) onto the current 2026 data, produces three distinct bottom projections: the 2012 cycle trace points to June 4, 2026; the 2016 cycle trace to September 24, 2026; and the 2020 cycle trace to October 30, 2026. The April 2024 halving set that clock in motion. Two of the three CryptoQuant models align with the October window that Nirun identified, lending some cross-source support to his call. The earlier June 4 projection from the 2012 cycle trace does not fit that window and should be weighted equally alongside the other two. Taken together, the three models suggest a range spanning June through late October rather than a clean convergence on any single month, and cycle analysis is not a reliable predictor in any case, since market conditions can diverge sharply from historical patterns.

For retail investors across Southeast Asia, the timing and source of this guidance carry specific weight. Thailand ranks 10th globally in crypto adoption according to the Chainalysis 2025 index, with about 21.9 percent of the population using cryptocurrency, nearly double the global average. A call from one of the country's leading regulated exchanges carries more institutional weight than typical analyst commentary. Thailand also introduced a five-year personal income tax exemption on capital gains from crypto sold through licensed exchanges, running from January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2029, meaning the window is already active and the Binance TH accumulation zone guidance is immediately actionable for Thai retail investors. The Thai SEC also approved USDC and USDT as permitted cryptocurrencies in March 2025, broadening access for stablecoin users across the region. The SEC is additionally finalizing rules for crypto ETFs and futures trading on the Thailand Futures Exchange, moves that could expand institutional participation further.

The picture outside Southeast Asia is more complicated. For retail traders in Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa, where peer-to-peer Bitcoin use is widespread and local currencies face persistent devaluation pressure, the dollar's recent strength compounds the pain of lower Bitcoin prices. Those holding BTC as a hedge against currency weakness are absorbing losses on both the asset and the exchange rate simultaneously. In India, where crypto gains face a 30 percent tax with no loss offsets, the prolonged accumulation phase offers limited structural support without accompanying policy reform. The slow expansion of the BRICS mBridge payment system, which has now processed $55 billion in transactions, points toward longer-term demand for alternatives to dollar settlement rails, a narrative that benefits Bitcoin's positioning as a neutral reserve asset even if near-term prices remain under pressure.

Nirun has previously stated publicly that he expected Binance TH to become the top crypto platform in Thailand within two years of its January 2024 launch. That two-year window has now technically elapsed as of this article's publication date, and the interview in which he made the remark has not been precisely dated in available records. The broader outlook he is offering now rests on a more complicated foundation than any single timeline. On-chain accumulation is running at multi-year highs, cycle models cluster around the second half of 2026, and Thailand's regulatory environment is among the most supportive in the region. But the three CryptoQuant models disagree on whether the bottom arrives in June, September, or October, and geopolitical escalation has already demonstrated twice in the past six weeks that it can override technical setups without warning. The second half of 2026 will be closely watched across the region. Whether the data proves directionally right or wrong, the signals that Nirun is reading are not his alone.