Bitcoin fell 2.64% to $62,858 during Asian trading hours on March 6, 2026, after US President Donald Trump announced a new round of global tariffs raising the baseline rate from 10% to 15% on imported goods worldwide. The move wiped $128 billion from the total digital assets market in a single session and extended what has already been Bitcoin's worst monthly performance since June 2022. BTC lost roughly 19% in February alone and is now trading approximately 50% below its October 2025 peak of approximately $126,198.

Trump pushed the tariff increase through despite a US Supreme Court ruling that invalidated earlier trade actions taken under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. He called the ruling "anti-American" in a post on Truth Social. The tariff news compounded ongoing geopolitical pressure: a separate session saw BTC drop 3.8% to $63,038 following US-Israel military strikes against Iran, before prices partially recovered following confirmation of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei's death.

Nirun Fuwattananukul, CEO of Binance Thailand, offered a concise explanation of what is moving Bitcoin right now. "Bitcoin prices are primarily driven by three factors: liquidity conditions, macroeconomic confidence, and technical structure," he told the Bangkok Post. He added that he expects "at least six months of consolidation before a sustainable recovery" materializes, pointing to the Federal Reserve's extended pause on rate cuts as a drag on crypto liquidity. Technically, Bitcoin is trading below both its 50-day moving average of around $80,000 and its 200-day moving average of around $101,000, confirming a sustained downtrend with no reversal signal visible yet. Analysts are watching $60,000 as the key threshold. "The 60K level needs to hold for bulls to have a chance," noted a technical analysis by OneUpTrader published on March 6. A sustained close below that level could push BTC toward the $53,000 to $50,000 range.

The bearish price action is not telling the whole story on-chain. Long-term holders sharply reduced their selling activity between early February and early March. Their 30-day net position change shifted from a distribution of 243,737 BTC on February 5 to just 31,967 BTC by March 1, an 87% reduction in selling pressure. In one session during that period, long-term holders flipped from net sellers to net buyers of 10,700 BTC, a stronger single-session bullish signal. US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which now hold a combined $92.37 billion in assets under management, recorded nearly $700 million in net inflows in early March, reversing four consecutive months of outflows. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio, a metric measuring whether Bitcoin is trading above or below its aggregate on-chain cost basis, sits at approximately 1.8. That level has historically been associated with accumulation phases rather than deep bear markets.

These on-chain signals contrast sharply with the lived experience of retail users across South Asia and Africa, where Bitcoin price swings carry consequences that go far beyond portfolio returns.

In Nigeria, which recorded $92.1 billion in on-chain crypto volume between July 2024 and June 2025, roughly 89% of crypto purchases are in Bitcoin. That figure compares to a global average closer to 51%. Many Nigerian users hold BTC as a substitute for dollar savings, given persistent naira devaluation and restricted access to foreign exchange. A price decline of approximately 50% from the October 2025 peak translates into an equivalent reduction in the USD value of those household savings. This pressure now arrives alongside Nigeria's 2026 crypto tax rules, which tax individual crypto profits at up to 25% and impose a 30% corporate income tax on virtual asset service providers.

Pakistan enters this downturn at a particularly pivotal moment. President Asif Ali Zardari signed the Virtual Assets Bill 2026 into law in early March, completing a legislative process that moved from Senate approval on February 27 through the National Assembly on March 3 to presidential assent within days. The law provides a regulatory framework for an estimated 40 million crypto users and brings formal oversight to what had been a largely informal market estimated at $25 billion. Exchanges including Binance and HTX have already received regulatory clearance from Pakistan's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority. The country's newly licensed exchanges will now face their first real stress test during a globally driven selloff. Pakistan's mining sector faces an additional structural challenge: recurring power shortages and high industrial electricity tariffs have made large-scale crypto mining economically marginal, a pressure that may worsen if USD-denominated energy costs continue to rise in the new global tariff environment.

India, one of the world's largest retail crypto markets, currently regulates crypto activity primarily through its tax framework. The country applies a 30% flat tax on gains and a 1% tax deducted at source on qualifying transactions. Indian retail traders are caught in a tight correlation between equity markets and crypto during risk-off episodes, with limited structural relief available.

Sub-Saharan Africa as a region received $205 billion in on-chain crypto value over the 12 months ending June 2025, representing 52% year-over-year growth and ranking the region as the third-fastest-growing crypto market globally. Chainalysis notes that stablecoin infrastructure, particularly USDT and USDC payment corridors connecting Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, tends to remain functional regardless of Bitcoin spot price movements. Builders focused on stablecoin settlement and cross-border payment rails may find that demand holds even as BTC corrects. Meanwhile, global exchange balances have dropped roughly 50% since late 2024, a signal that self-custody adoption is rising, creating a structural tailwind for non-custodial wallet developers across both regions. The regional regulatory landscape is also taking shape: Kenya's Virtual Asset Service Provider Act took effect on November 4, 2025, Ghana has passed its own crypto legislation, and Kenya's parliament is currently considering a proposed 10% excise duty on crypto transactions that could dampen retail adoption growth if enacted.